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The eyes of football will be on Dallas on Monday evening as one of the winning matches of this World Cup or the World Cup involves the powerhouses of Europe in Spain and Portugal.
The Iberian neighbors have been involved for more than a century, meeting 43 times, including several in major competitions, but this could be the biggest, the one at stake.
Will Ronaldo start against Spain, and should he?
Forget stoppage time, VAR and the Golden Boot race, perhaps the biggest story of the World Cup so far is Cristiano Ronaldo’s involvement in Portugal.
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The 41-year-old was under control in the Group K opener against DR Congo, playing every minute of the 1-1 draw, but missing the chance to win the match.
He responded to the opposition with a superb display against Uzbekistan, scoring twice before the break to become the first man to register six goals at World Cups, but could add more to the 5-0 win in which he played the entire game.
After declaring ‘I’m back’ on social media after the match, Ronaldo was on the edge as he played 90 minutes for every goal against Colombia, which saw Portugal finish as runners-up in the group.
There was a flash of the old CR7 in the upset win over Croatia that booked their place in the last 16, seeing a good finish after blocking a free kick, then equalized in the middle of the second half, but was pulled by Roberto Martinez in the 81st minute of the game.
His first reaction was to be disappointed and reluctant, shaking his head and saying sorry, but he left. Goncalo Ramos replaced him as a future threat, then headed in a stoppage-time winner.
So should Martinez keep faith with Ramos in the Spanish game, leaving Ronaldo as his replacement?
It is worth remembering that Ronaldo was removed from the round of 16 against Switzerland in the last World Cup in Qatar by his boss Fernando Santos.
Ronaldo was unhappy to be substituted in the final hour after the game was tied 1-1, with South Korea winning with a late goal.
Ramos scored a hat-trick in a 6-1 win over the Swiss, before being replaced by Ronaldo for the final 17 minutes when the score was already 5-1.
The stakes are high for Ronaldo to start, and despite being a man of the moment, Spain’s back line is dangerous as they look to secure a sixth consecutive World Cup title.
Expect Ronaldo to start in the middle, but Martinez has shown he’s willing to sacrifice himself to win, so don’t expect him to finish the game.
History favors La Roja
There has been little to separate Portugal and Spain in their previous five meetings at major tournaments, with each side winning once and the remaining three drawn.
This includes their most recent World Cup meeting, a 3-3 draw in 2018 in which Ronaldo scored a hat-trick, and their most recent defeat, a goalless draw in the UEFA Euro 2012 semifinals before Spain went on penalties.
Portugal, however, have won one of their last 12 meetings with Spain (D6 L5), that 1-0 victory coming more than 20 years ago in the 2004 Euros group stage, assisted by Nuno Gomes.
But they will be confident of defeating Spain, albeit in a shootout, in their most recent Nations League meeting in June 2025.
Portugal vs Spain Prediction
Before kick-off, Luis de la Fuente’s side were expected to be favorites – and for good reason.
La Roja are unbeaten in their last 34 matches (W25 D9), shy of equaling their longest unbeaten streak of 35 between February 2007 and June 2009. Only Italy, with 37 between 2018 and 2021, has enjoyed the longest unbeaten streak among European nations.
Most of those wins have come under De la Fuente, who is unbeaten in his first 11 games at the World Cup or Euros (W10 D1), scoring just four goals.
If Spain defeat Portugal, the Spaniard will join Aime Jacquet and Louis van Gaal as the only managers to avoid defeat in their opening 12 competitive games.
Spanish rule has also grown beyond its influence. They have posted an expected goals (xG) of +1.80 per game at this World Cup (2.0 for, 0.2 against) – the best by any European country to top the group since France’s +1.82 in 1998.
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see past Spain going into the quarterfinals, with De la Fuente’s team winning within 90 minutes in 49.2% of the 25,000 attempts before that.
Portugal, however, will be full of confidence after defeating Croatia slowly and will want to make every chance count, with their chances at 25.6 percent, while a draw (which would mean extra time and possibly penalties) takes the remaining 25.2 percent.
What about Lamine Yamal?
Lamine Yamal is probably the biggest international icon that never made it to the biggest event of all….
The 18-year-old – who will turn 19 on July 13, the day before Spain can face France or Morocco back in Dallas – suffered a hamstring injury while playing for Barcelona in April, putting his participation in the World Cup full-stop in doubt.
He played just 141 minutes in group matches against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, scoring in the second leg, although De la Fuente said he was “good” before the final.
He started on the left side of the attack in the Round of 32 victory in Austria and looked like the ‘old man’, being the center of danger for La Roja in the first half and making the crowd wait every time he took the ball.
Pedro Porro replaced Marcos Llorente at the back of the game in Los Angeles, where his understanding with Yamal is growing, although De la Fuente may choose to return to Llorente for the Portugal game as his defensive credentials can be chosen over the threat of Porro.
Is this a bad FIFA game?
Well, without a doubt it’s a competition in the last 16, between two of the strongest teams in European and international football.
Portugal’s failure to win in their group will cause consternation among their group organizers as it has made their defeat more difficult and eliminated the possibility of Messi and Ronaldo meeting in the quarter-finals, should Portugal manage to get past Ghana and Switzerland.
After Germany and the Netherlands were eliminated in the Round of 32, the last thing the organizers would want is to lose another top-ranked and successful country in the last 16, but this has been confirmed by this match.
The United States or Belgium will wait in the last eight for the winner of the tie on Monday, with the hope of France or Morocco following in the semifinals with the only chance of a show between the international icons in Ronaldo and Messi now in the final on July 19.
Midfield where the game will be won or lost?
Spain’s win over Austria was their most comprehensive display of the tournament so far, and in big tournaments it’s not about how you start, it’s how you finish.
Rodri and Pedri have started every game in the middle of the park and are the heartbeat of the side, although they have not won with their club form this season.
De la Fuente has joined his pack with Dani Olmo, Mikel Merino and Fabian Ruiz all given the chance to go a little further ahead of the pair. It’s Olmo who seems to have his shirt on, with Alex Baena usurping Gavi and Ferran Torres as the right wing of the attack, the injured Nico Williams and Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal locked in at center and left respectively.
This should be an exciting game where two of the best players in the world meet.
Joao Neves and Vitinha have won their second Champions League in a row with Paris Saint Germain (PSG), while Bruno Fernandes has had a successful season with Manchester United in the Premier League.
Ruben Neves was handed the final chance in the last group game, with qualification already assured, but expect Martinez to go with his tried and trusted trio.
Spain have dominated in all four of their matches, while Portugal have done the same in three of their four, with the exception of the final group game against Colombia.
Speaking after Croatia’s win, Martinez said: “We know Spain very well and they know us very well. I think it will be an interesting game. Two teams that want the ball, that want to attack, recover quickly and create chances. I think it will be a good game”.
Whoever wins the midseason battle could be the team that advances to the quarterfinals in Los Angeles on Friday.
