What will Pakistan gain by helping broker the US-Iran deal? | | US-Israel War on Iran News

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pa Alpine resort of Burgenstock in Switzerland last week, the Vice President of the United States JD Vance stood together with the Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif and the Prime Minister of Qatar Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani.

Standing about a meter away was Pakistani military commander Asim Munir, who Vance pointed to as he began his speech.

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“Since Field Marshal Asim Munir welcomed us with the prime minister in Islamabad (in April), I have joked that I have two important people in my life, an Indian and a Pakistani. The Indian is my wife, and the Pakistani is Field Marshal Munir,” he said to laughter in the room.

The vice president, whose wife, Usha Vance, is the daughter of Indian immigrants, added that he had spoken to Munir more than anyone else in the past three months. “We wouldn’t be here without his leadership and military leadership,” Vance said, pointing compliments he also gave and US President Donald Trump.

The praise was not limited to Washington.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian he arrived in the capital of Pakistan, Islamabad, on Monday for a state visit, his first foreign visit since Iran was attacked by the US and Israel on February 28, and thanked for Islamabad’s help in bringing Washington and Tehran to the negotiating table.

The visit confirmed how the past four months have repositioned Islamabad in Tehran’s calculations.

Pakistan he has destroyed he often acts as a key intermediary between the US and Iran, managing backchannel communications, conducting discussions in Islamabad and manage political risks to open passageways in Iran as it consolidates its Gulf relations.

The the framework of peace which was agreed on June 18 and the 60-day negotiations now underway are the result of that effort.

The question facing Islamabad is more important: What does Pakistan gain?

Financial picture

For Pakistan’s troubled economy, the answers will not come soon.

The country recorded gross domestic product growth of 3.7 per cent in the last financial year, its fastest pace in four years, while exports rose 8.2 per cent to $30.3bn. The financial crisis was also significantly reduced.

But Hina Shaikh, an economist in Lahore is International Growth Centerhe said the image behind those numbers is not encouraging.

“Pakistan’s mediation will bring little economic benefit, especially if it reduces the cost of electricity like Hormuz River “The recent growth has come mainly from the reduction of oil and gas imports due to the blockade of Hormuz rather than any growth,” he added, referring to the closure of the critical waterway during the US-Israel war in Iran.

Pakistan is still in a debt program of $ 7bn and The International Monetary Fundits 25th plan is a loan from the 1950s. It was approved in 2024.

Western governments have talked up the merits of developing deeper economic ties with Pakistan, but diplomatic favors are not just about money or relief, according to experts.

Pakistan was here before. Prior to September 11, 2001, attacked on the US, the agreement with Washington brought debt restructuring and international aid, but did not fix the weaknesses that continue to weigh on its economy: narrow taxes, weak exports and modern technology problems.

Shaikh said diplomatic relations are still important.

“Pakistan’s economic problems are not the result of geopolitics, nor can they be solved by diplomatic prestige,” he said. “But there is no doubt that the good will buy Islamabad some breathing room, which they can use to advance the reforms.”

Regional award

Within Pakistan’s policy, the argument is that the real reward lies less in economic cooperation between the two countries and regional gains such as a stable relationship between Iran and the US can reshape Pakistan’s region.

Aid to Iran could be reopened sales are running on the border of Balochistan, which has been under pressure for years.

The Iran-Pakistan gas pipelinewhich was suspended for more than ten years under the pressure of US sanctions, may return to the process.

But the diplomatic picture is more complicated than Islamabad’s public messages suggest.

Umer Karim, a fellow at the Riyadh-based King Faisal Center for Islamic Research and Study, who works on Gulf affairs and Pakistan, said Pakistan had stepped into the crisis by filling what could have been a limited space.

“Pakistan entered the region’s crisis as a bridge between the US and Iran at a time when the Trump administration did not trust any mediator,” he said. “It was nonsense that Pakistan filled it when it was acceptable to Iran’s side as well mediate coordination and Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which brought together all the major players in the region. “

Karim said Pakistan’s influence is limited.

“Pakistan needs to involve itself in the security of the Middle East, but it has not achieved the kind that can force Iran to give concessions or force the US to accept Iran’s demands and maintain its relations even with all the Gulf players,” he said.

Who benefits?

There is another question going on under diplomacy.

Vance’s speech at Burgenstock elected Munir, a non-government official.

Observers said that the Pakistani organization that has gained the most in the last four months is soldiers.

It has directly ruled Pakistan for more than 30 years of its nearly 80-year history as an independent nation. It continues to control and influence domestic politics and foreign affairs with the army chief – especially Munir – who is seen by the opposition as a dictator of the country.

Prices, some say, will fall more for those farthest from the diplomatic table.

Tughral Yamin, a retired analyst and security analyst in Islamabad, said the real test for housing would be whether any economic benefits would reach the southwestern region. Balochistanthe poorest region of Pakistan, which has been experiencing a more than two years campaign against separatist rebels.

“If economic benefits are shared with the people of Balochistan, the scourge of terrorism can be eradicated,” he told Al Jazeera.

“We are at the cusp of a great economic opportunity, although we have missed many opportunities in the past.”