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In less than two years he returned the Labor Party in the United Kingdom to a landslide victory. Keir Starmer has announced his resignation as British Prime Minister. Analysts say his resignation could lead to Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham entering Downing Street.
Starmer’s opinion follows stressful months leaving on the side of Labor MPs and cabinet ministers, many of whom are deeply concerned about the party’s expected electoral performance amid the rapid rise of Reform UK and in the clear. the results of the council election in May.
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“The question that my party is asking now is whether I have a chance to lead us at the next election. I have heard my parliamentary party’s answer to that question, and I accept that answer with good grace,” Starmer told reporters outside 10 Downing Street on Monday.
His decision will trigger a leadership contest that will produce the UK’s seventh Prime Minister in a decade. Here’s how it all plays out in the coming weeks.
Why has Keir Starmer resigned as Prime Minister?
Despite Labor winning the 2024 general election, the party’s popularity has fallen as support for the anti-immigration, far-right Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, has risen.
In last month’s local elections, Labor lost heavily while Reform made big gains. Labor lost 1,496 council seats, while Reform gained 1,453 positions – mostly from Labor – and won 14 councillors. Referendum on Starmer himself.
Labor has also lost support on both sides of the political spectrum. Starmer’s efforts to pursue a tougher stance on immigration have failed to halt the rise of Reform among former Conservative voters and among working-class sections of traditional Labor, particularly in the north of England.
Meanwhile, some critics within Labor have linked the drop in support among the party’s progressive divisions to Starmer’s stance on Israel and health cuts.
The growing number of by-elections has raised concerns among Labor MPs about the party’s prospects at the next general election, which is due to be held by July 2029.
So what’s going on?
Standing outside Downing Street on Monday, Starmer confirmed he would leave after losing confidence in his parliamentary party.
He said: “I spoke to his king this morning to tell him about my decision.”
“I will ask the National Executive Committee of the Labor Party to establish a schedule of appointments and names that opens on July 9 and ends with the summer break (July 16). In terms of competition, this will ensure that the new leader is responsible before the Parliament back in September,” he said.
“I will remain in the position of prime minister until this race is over. And I will do everything I can to ensure that power is distributed in an orderly manner.”
Starmer’s announcement sparks a leadership race.
Under Labor Party rules, candidates must win 20 percent of Labor MPs to enter the race. Since Labor has 403 seats in the UK Parliament, this means that each candidate would need the support of 81 MPs.
It remains to be seen how many candidates there are.
Burnham, who re-entered Parliament by winning the by-election in the north of England’s Makerfield last week, is understood to have secured enough support to cross the threshold.
Wes Streeting, who recently resigned as health secretary in protest at the council’s election results, has also been recognized as having enough support. However, he said he would stand aside to allow Burnham to secure the presidency.
How does the leadership race work?
Christopher Featherstone, assistant professor of politics at the University of York, said Starmer would remain prime minister until a new leader was announced.
If Burnham stops – or if he’s the only one who can get enough support to do so – it’s the end of the race. He will win the presidency.
If other contestants drop out, the election will be done through your preferred vote. Anyone who has been a member of the Labor Party for six months before an election is scheduled to vote.
If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the first-place votes, the lowest-ranking candidates are eliminated and their votes are redistributed until a winner emerges.
Meanwhile, Featherstone said: “If one of the frontrunners gets too much help, the others can drop out of the race…
In other words, if the race goes as planned, Labor hopes to have a new leader in place before Parliament returns in September. If one agent gets too much help, the process can end quickly.
Once his successor is appointed, Starmer will step down as Prime Minister to King Charles, who will call on a new Labor leader to form a government.
The constitutional principle is that the British monarch appoints a person who can command the confidence of the House of Commons.
Why is Andy Burnham the director?
Burnham, who is due to be sworn in as the new MP for Makerfield on Monday, is widely seen as the front-runner to replace Starmer.
“I will put myself forward as part of this process,” he told Sky News.
His victory in last week’s Makerfield by-election has further strengthened his position. Burnham won 55 percent of the vote, finishing more than 9,200 votes ahead of Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon. The next step was hoping to get closer than this.
As mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham has developed a reputation as one of Labour’s most popular and influential politicians. He has said Westminster could learn from what he calls “Manchesterism” – a model he has worked for that combines business policies with greater public control of essential services.
Burnham’s appeal among Labor voters has led many in the party to see him as one of Labour’s most powerful means of winning over the so-called “red wall” areas that have become the focus of Reform UK.
His rise comes after Reform’s strong performance in the mid-term elections, raising concerns among Labor MPs that the party needs a leader capable of reconnecting with voters who have drifted away in recent years.
Featherstone said Burnham’s rise could keep his rivals from entering the race. “The most obvious will be the newly elected Andy Burnham, who is stepping up after winning the Makerfield election,” he said.
“Burnham entered Parliament with the intention of challenging Starmer, meaning he will not be able to avoid standing for the leadership.”
What about other candidates?
Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting has long been seen as Burnham’s main rival and has previously hinted at a bid for the leadership.
However, on Monday, he endorsed Burnham instead. “After speaking at length with Andy in recent days, I am convinced that there is room for that spirit under his leadership; that he is committed to building a united party that embodies our best political traditions; and that he can win the battle of our lives against the powers that be,” Streeting said.
“We can spend the summer exaggerating the small differences, or we can raise our hands and help him change what our party and our country want.” This is the choice I am making, and I hope everyone will come back to Andy. “
Another possible contender was Angela Rayner, Labor’s deputy prime minister, among those repeatedly mentioned as potential opposition. However, he said he would support Burnham.
Rayner “is popular in the Labor Party, and with other MPs, and played a big role in the 2024 election”, Featherstone said.
He also said former defense minister Al Carns should run in the future, saying the MP “would need a national reputation before standing” and that he “could backfire, which could challenge the leader in the future”.
“Burnham have a big lead in the race, and they forced Starmer’s hand,” Featherstone said. “He is known as the leader, and many consider the race to be his to win.”
