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As Washington and Tehran move toward a long-term ceasefire agreement, Gulf says they will look for new ways to protect themselves long after the war in their communities – which has not yet begun – is over.
It comes as US President Donald Trump has ruled out new strikes on Iran, saying a deal with Tehran is close, and that the “time” and “place” of signing will soon be announced.
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In Tehran, officials appeared cautious as an Iranian official told Al Jazeera that the government was still reviewing the proposed Memorandum of Understanding with Washington.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s subsequent comments indicate a deal is underway, and what follows in the coming days could have significant implications for regional security.
The invasion of the Gulf
The United States maintains military operations in at least 19 locations in the MENA region, including permanent bases in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. Between 40,000 and 50,000 US troops were stationed across the region before the war against Iran began.
The US-Gulf agreement seems to insulate the countries from the conflicts that are happening in other regions, but in the last four months, the Gulf countries that have US military equipment have been fighting against Iran.
“If there is a way to explain the current security situation in the region since the 1980s, the concept of security cooperation fits it well,” said Mahjoub Al-Zuwairi, an academic and expert on Middle East politics.
“The countries of the region have decided to coordinate their security with a larger international cooperation.”
Safety umbrella with holes
Iran’s war has revealed a paradox – while Iranian officials have repeatedly referred to their Gulf neighbors as “brothers”, they have repeatedly fired at them during the war.
Despite the protestations of the Gulf states that no attack on Iran was launched on their soil, they have been repeatedly criticized.
At least 28 people have been killed in six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states in suspected Iranian drone and rocket attacks, since the US and Israel launched their attack on Iran on February 28. This has raised questions about US-Gulf security.
“The war itself has undermined security, the US security umbrella has been severely damaged, or is not functioning properly,” Simon Mabon, a professor of international relations at Lancaster University, told Al Jazeera.
“They’ve been relying on this for protection.” However, the presence of the US military in their territory meant that they became targets. They cannot escape from their place (and) despite the conflicts, despite the violence, despite the attacks, Iran will not leave. They have to find a way to deal with this. “
The economic cost of war
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has proven difficult for other Gulf countries working to shift their energy-dependent economies to tourism, employment and finance, but not all have been equally affected.
Saudi Arabia managed to export some oil through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, while Oman – whose main ports are outside the Strait of Hormuz – has also benefited from rising energy prices.
The UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar have been hit hard by their reliance on the waterway to export their energy, but the war has prompted new thinking on long-term security and economic policies.
“There are new pipelines that have been installed, but the capacity of these other channels is much less than the Strait itself,” said Mabon. “It’s going to take a lot of money and years of development to come close to replacing it.”
Moving closer to Iran?
One lesson that can be learned from this conflict is that the Gulf states may seek cooperation with Iran instead of confrontation, which the Gulf states had already created the basis for before the US-Israel war.
The UAE restored their relations with Tehran in 2022and a year later, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to reform their relations with China.
Al-Zuwairi says the conflict could revive regional security plans led by MENA, such as expected in the 2019 Hormuz Peace Initiative, which proposed a Gulf security policy involving Iran, Iraq and the six GCC countries.
But the mistrust that has developed since then – particularly Tehran’s attacks on its Gulf neighbors – may make that unlikely any time soon.
“The latest war has opened a big door to rethink the security of the Gulf and its neighbors,” Al-Zuwairi said.
“How can Tehran create a non-terrorist alliance while dropping missiles on neighboring cities?
Looking beyond Washington?
The Gulf solution could be a hybrid system where ties with Washington are maintained, but other regional and domestic options are explored, including more investment in local defense industries.
A potential reaction to this could be the security agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan last September, stating that an attack on one country would be considered an attack on both.
However, past incidents where the Gulf states have felt abandoned by the US have led to mixed responses, with the UAE and Bahrain deepening ties with Israel, but the new proposal means that security measures can be considered.
“This war has shown that every guarantor, no matter how he flies, protects his interests,” Al-Zuwairi said.
“The region can pay the price of the war that it did not choose… The defense of the Gulf will not be made in Washington… It will be made when the Gulf countries realize that they must build it themselves, because when a fire starts, it is always those who are closest to the flames who pay the price.”
