Can Africa turn its population into a prosperous one? | | Business and Financial Issues

Pretoria, South Africa – As the world opinion in Africa becomes pessimistic, with less aid, less foreign investment, and many governments are dying, one fact remains: the world is becoming inevitable.

Africa has 1.6 billion people today, a number that is expected to double by 2061.

According to a report by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), Africa’s population is expected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, making it the fastest growing region in the world.

In his book How Africa Works, Joe Studwell says that Africa is now just reaching the population density necessary for growth to increase.

Proliferation, in this arrangement, is not a burden to control but a culture of departure, the basis of deep markets, large working places and agricultural reforms that support industrial development.

For many years, population growth has been seen as an obstacle in Africa. The question now is no longer whether the continent has enough people, but whether it can prepare them well and quickly enough.

A market where numbers build

By 2040, the number of people working in Africa is expected to exceed the number of India and China combined, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).

Cities such as Nairobi, Lagos, Accra and Dar-es-Salaam are transforming from administrative centers to affordable markets and workplaces.

But population growth is not the future. The World Bank estimates that about 44 percent of Africa’s population lives in urban areas, and this share is expected to rise to over 60 percent by 2050.

This change is happening more than most governments can prepare for or fund.

Industrialization in East Asia was based on land reform, export production, and institutionalization.

Africa has a population, but it has not started the machinery to turn it into sustainable growth.

Mandipa Ndlovu, a researcher at Leiden University, said that the government will see the results.

“One of the biggest challenges is the failure of many countries and city authorities to prepare ahead of the pressure on people, workplaces, financial institutions and informality as part of the economy rather than oppression,” he told Al Jazeera.

The Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) 2024, published by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, found that almost half of Africans live in countries where governance has collapsed in the past decade. Crowding without institutions does not drive growth; it bothers them.

Agriculture and the AfCFTA: Promise versus politics

In Studwell’s model, development begins in the countryside. An increase in the productivity of smallholders creates surpluses that can be reinvested in the industry. Every successful industrialist, from Japan to South Korea to Taiwan, started with land reform and agricultural reform.

However, agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa is still low. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), maize yields about 1.5-2 tons per hectare, compared to more than 4 tons per hectare in South Asia.

Some countries are trying to change the structure. Ethiopia and Rwanda have shown what the world can achieve. But in many parts of the continent, agriculture remains secondary to short-term politics.

Marketing integration should support this change. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), established by the African Union (AU), aims to create a single market of 1.4 billion people with a gross domestic product (GDP) of about $3.4 trillion, according to UNECA. But implementation remains inconsistent, undermined by competing national demands.

“Despite the ideas that are wanted in the AfCFTA, and we have seen green shoots, unfortunately we have chosen an international leadership that seems inward and short-term,” said Lwazi Somya, senior researcher at the Southern Africa Liaison Office.

“It will take guts for our leaders to come together deliberately to create the existing policies. However, I strongly doubt that it will happen because of different interests for the sake of short-term political gains,” he told Al Jazeera.

The goal is continental. Politics is still secular.

Production: Missing link

Urbanization and agriculture are the starting point. The ultimate goal is to create more, export-oriented jobs. According to the UN Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), manufacturing accounts for 10-12 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP – well below that of developed economies, where this share often exceeds 20 percent.

No country has passed this stage. Industrial capacity is created through innovation, replication, growth and export.

Foreign investment can accelerate this process, but only if it builds domestic capacity rather than cooperation.

Chris Edeygu, a senior researcher at Africa Risk Consulting, says that about 10,000 Chinese companies are now operating across Africa, with a third of them manufacturing. In Ethiopia’s textile sector, this has created jobs and improved skills.

“Africa’s population growth means that the region should be one of the best places to invest in the world,” he says.

“But the benefits have been inconsistent. More needs to be done to ensure that foreign investment is strengthening local strengths and not bypassing them,” he told Al Jazeera.

Factories not only have jobs, but also skills. And the skill increases.

Plastic requirements

What distinguishes Studwell’s argument from the more popular optimists and pessimists is his focus on agency. Population forms a scale. A plan sets a course.

For the first time in the country’s post-colonial history, the ingredients of structural change are coming together: population growth, increased labor force and urban incarceration.

But the benefits will not be automatic. It needs sustainable investment in education, energy, housing, land reform and industrial policy, and governments that can follow directions while bringing productivity.

The scale is now in place. The clock is ticking. Whether Africa’s population growth will be a catalyst for change or a missed opportunity depends on the decisions made now.

“Africa’s demographics will win or lose because of good urban governance,” said Mandipa Ndlovu.