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One of the main talking points in the lead-up to the World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico is what weather conditions the matches will be played in
Researchers have warned that 14 of the 16 venues will reach dangerous conditions throughout the tournament, including England’s base in Kansas City.
According to new research by Climate is centralAnyone who tested exposed to temperatures greater than 28C – a threshold associated with decreased player performance – faced a higher probability of experiencing performance-impairing conditions in 97 out of 104 matches.
To understand the seriousness of the situation – and what the future may hold – Sky Sports News‘ David Garrido invites climate scientist Dr Ella Gilbert to the Sky Studio…
The last time the USA hosted the World Cup was in 1994 – can you give us an idea of the general conditions back then and how different they are from this year?
“1994 was a really hot year. It was a few years after a volcanic eruption that caused temperatures to drop. In ’94, temperatures were rising again and there was a mega heat wave in the southern part of the United States and Canada.
“Temperatures in June and July climbed into the 40s and even went up to about 53 degrees Celsius in some parts. There wasn’t much rain, which was not normal in the 90s.
Brazil won the 1994 World Cup in Pasadena
“Since then, global average temperatures have continued to rise. We still have heat waves and we see them more often. When we do see them, they are much hotter and last longer.
“In 1994 it was about 0.55C above pre-industrial temperatures. Now, we’re about 1.55C above. It’s brought more extreme events and heat waves have pushed the average temperature upwards. It’s making extreme events like floods, droughts and storms happen more frequently.”
Are we dealing with a completely different baseline climate than the 90s?
“One degree doesn’t sound like much but, in fact, the difference is big. It took 140 years for the climate to warm compared to pre-industrial times where we had no climate warming.
“In the 30 or so years since the 1990s, we’ve done the same thing again and then some. The heat has accelerated in the last 30 years and it’s only ramping up and having a significant impact.
“It’s a fundamentally different climate. We’re pushing the envelope of what’s considered normal, and we’re making the extremes more extreme: heat waves hotter, droughts longer, floods bigger, rainfall more extreme.
“It’s affecting every corner of the world and we’re all feeling it.”
What will be the noticeable difference for the players in the World Cup?
“It will depend on the conditions of the day, but we should never underestimate the impact of extreme heat and other types of extreme weather on people.
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Roman Kemp was put through his paces in a fancy session
“We see hotter conditions more and with every degree of warmth, we get more humidity, so it’s going to be less comfortable to be a player in those conditions. It’s more humid and hotter.
“We’re more likely to stop the players from staying hydrated or get rained out by some heavy downpour that doesn’t appear out of nowhere.
“These interruptions are more likely and players will have to adapt strategies or tactics to manage their health.
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Sky Sports News reporter Rob Dorsett provides the latest update on the England squad after their first night in the US ahead of the World Cup.
“Both teams experience the same conditions so it’s fair in that sense, but, inevitably, it’s going to change the game. We should all keep that in mind when we’re watching.”
How extreme is the risk of heavy rains and storms?
“In some parts of the United States, you get a lot of rain anyway, but with every degree of warming in the climate, we get seven percent more moisture in the atmosphere. That means you’re more likely to see that torrential rain.
“Certainly it can stop the game and I’m sure we’ll see one or two this summer.”
Chelsea’s match against Benfica in last year’s Club World Cup was delayed by two hours due to weather.
We hear a lot about El Nino – what is it?
“It’s a weather pattern that emerges every five to seven years. It starts in the Pacific Ocean and it’s about the warming of the ocean surface. Sometimes it’s cooler and sometimes it’s warmer.
“When it’s warm, it’s called El Niño and it can have global effects. Generally, it leads to warmer temperatures all over the planet but it has different effects in different places.
“In the northern part of the United States and southern Canada, it’s warm and dry. In the southern part of the United States it tends to be wet and cool. It also rains on the West Coast because it shifts the jet stream.
“If we focus on the World Cup, we’ll see impacts depending on where the games are played. You’re more likely to see wet conditions on the West Coast and dry conditions in the northern part of the United States or southern Canada.
“There was an El Nino in 1994 and temperatures were really high. The last time we had one was 2023 to 2024, which was the warmest year on record.”
Have we reached a point where North America and similar climates are going to struggle to host this summer’s World Cup?
“It all depends on how you deal with the situation, how you deal with that situation.
“Part of the picture is, of course, that those situations are becoming more extreme, more hostile and more difficult to manage. Some countries are going to be better equipped to adapt to that and, if they can build air-conditioned stadiums, that’s already an important adaptation.
Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium has a retractable roof and air conditioning
“But when the costs – financial and otherwise – outweigh the benefits of hosting the World Cup in that country, you have to reassess the trade-offs.
“We might have to do what they did in Qatar, where we might have to change if we have games.
“Climate change is already affecting every part of society and it’s only going to continue to do so and make its effects more known. Sport is one of the many parts of society that will have to adapt.”
What kind of World Cup will we see in 30 years from now?
“That’s when we really start to see the impact of our actions today. The future really starts to look different in 2050, 2060. If we decide now to reduce emissions and we try to limit the amount of warming we eventually do, then eventually we’ll start to see that kick in.”
“On the other hand, if we do nothing and we continue as we are, burning fossil fuels, deforesting, we’re going to see those translational effects. It’s going to completely change the landscape. If we choose to emit a lot now, we’re going to start seeing warmer temperatures.
The 2030 World Cup will initially be held in Morocco, Portugal and Spain, while the 2034 tournament will be held in Saudi Arabia.
“Obviously, we’re going to see warmer conditions because we’re still going to heat the planet, but it’s within our power to determine how much warming we’ll see at that point.
“The World Cup we see by 2050 or 2060 will be hotter. It will be wetter, more humid, less bearable for players, fans and officials, and it will be more extreme, so we will see more extreme events.
“In 1994 vs. what we’re talking about now will be the same, but amplified.”
You can follow the 2026 World Cup on Sky Sports’ platforms, with live blog coverage of every single game of the 104 matches, from the opening match on Thursday 11 June to the final on Sunday 19 July.
