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As Arsenal face Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final and end their wait for the Premier League title, the Gunners have banished the fear, excitement and doubt that haunted previous campaigns, writes betting guru Lewis Jones. She has three tips for big…
Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal, Champions League Final, Saturday at 5pm
Arsenal winning the Premier League is a real game changer for me when it comes to this game from a betting point of view.
Arsenal to win Saturday’s final are 11/10 with Sky Bet – in 90 minutes, extra time or on penalties – and complete the double. PSG are 8/11 favorites to win the trophy for the second time in a row.
I think these odds should be closer because the psychology of this Champions League final feels vastly underrated in the betting. I was expecting the market to move more favorably towards Arsenal since winning the Premier League – but it hasn’t shifted at all.
Mikel Arteta has overcome a huge psychological hurdle to win the Premier League
Arsenal have borne the brunt of almost being the man. But winning the Premier League changed everything.
That monkey has now left their back. Ultimately the emotional release of getting over the line is important. You can see it in celebration – it can now be a team suddenly freed from the fear of failure.
This final is now created as an opportunity rather than an obligation.
Winning the Champions League and completing the double will elevate them into legendary territory this season – but if they fall short, they’re still Premier League champions.
History has already been written. Whatever happens here, this team has gone down in history.
Arsenal are chasing the bonus prize. That makes Arsenal dangerous.
And even from a tactical set up I think Arsenal are very well equipped to stop PSG from seriously hitting space and territory. Mikel Arteta will make it ugly and create a game where whoever defends the best wins.
The Gunners have kept nine clean sheets in their last 14 Champions League games – the axis of David Raya, William Saliba and Gabriel Akshay are as world-class as the PSG front three of Khvicha Kvaratshelia, Ousmane Dembele and Desiree Douy at their own pace.
Arsenal have yet to concede from open play in the knockout stages – and three of their four goals in the league stage came in the final two games when qualification was assured and they rotated heavily.
This is a defense that can lead them to glory.
Jones knows best bet: Arsenal to win Champions League (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Top of the props?
Matches of this magnitude are full of betting opportunities in the prop market.
I always want to focus on the final foul. The increased danger, added motivation and better chance of a game of this magnitude becoming very foul tends to see higher foul averages than these market price-increasing algorithms.
An average of 28.5 fouls per 90 in the last 30 Europa League and Champions League finals.
For context, the Premier League has averaged 21.5 fouls per 90 games this season. And 22.5 fouls per game in the Champions League.
So from an initial drawdown of data on a pretty good sample size you can probably add up to an expected average of six fouls for a major European final.
This means there is a great opportunity to back a player in the player foul market.
Bukayo Saka to make two or more fouls is the best bet at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
As with all bets in the Player Fouls market, the match-up is absolutely crucial and Saka’s fight with Nuno Mendes is sure to be a ‘foul’.
Mendes is drawing 1.7 fouls per 90 this season and doesn’t need much of an invite to go under minimal contact. Saka, a heavy foul drawer himself, can be quite irritating with his tackling, especially in big games, and is working to a 1.4 fouls per 90 strike-rate over his last 20 games.
He has made two or more fouls in his last two starts against Burnley and West Ham – and the biggest one was Saka’s two fouls in two knockout matches with PSG last season when he played against Mendes.
Jones knows best bet: Bukayo Saka fouls two or more (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Bucayo Saka is 11/10 to foul 2+ with Sky Bet
Long shot…
Set-pieces are another area where Arsenal have the upper hand over PSG.
The Gunners have scored the most set-piece goals (24) and goals from corners (18) in the Premier League.
If you go back to the second leg meeting between these two last season, Arsenal produced 0.77 expected goals from set-pieces in Paris. It was raining long throws – it was a very set-piece heavy strategy. Expected the same again.
So all the common strategies for a set-piece based bet are here with Gabriel in the clear starting point table. However, odds of 15/2 with Sky Bet for him to score are pretty slim. We can get greedier than this.
If he is going to score the goal is more likely to come from an angle, so the way to play the Gabriel angle is to play two bets with the BuildABet function.
Gabriel to score and Declan Rice to assist – it’s 25/1.
And Gabriel to score and Saka to assist – also 25/1.
Gabriel scores 25/1 with an assist from Declan Rice or Saka
In the last two seasons, this exact type of bet has happened five times across the Premier League and Champions League.
And Rice-to-Gabriel or Saka-to-Gabriel combo opportunities have been created 39 times over the past two seasons.
Of course, we have the added bonus of two bets being able to land at different times in the match – so, if Gabriel scores, Saka or Rice assists another Arsenal goal, the bet will still land that way.
