How is Europe affected by the lack of fertilizer due to the war in Iran? | | Food News

Ministers of agriculture in the European Union will meet Brussels to discuss the availability of fertilizers while the war in Iran disrupts the supply chain around the world.

These discussions come as the European Commission is pushing for a new Fertilizer Action Plan which aims to help farmers who are facing a significant increase in the cost of fertilizers. We believe that these measures can boost agriculture and reduce Europe’s dependence on imported food.

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The system includes possible fertilizer reserves, emergency aid to farmers and measures to increase imports from countries other than Russia and Belarus, who are participating in the war with Ukraine.

It comes amid chaos in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Israel war on Iran. The important shipping route usually accounts for a third of the world’s fertilizer trade, raising fears that rising fuel and fertilizer prices could make farmers struggling to pay more.

Although the EU is less affected by fertilizer shortages than other parts of the world, the supply shortfall has highlighted divisions within the bloc over how to secure food and protect farmers from rising prices.

What does Europe look like?

Europe exports a lot of fertilizers, bringing two million tons of ammonia, 5.8 million tons of urea and 6.7 million tons of nitrogen fertilizers and mixtures in 2024, according to EU data.

The EU also produces its own nitrogen fertiliser, but this relies heavily on imported gas. As the conflict in the Gulf increases gas prices, it also makes domestically produced fertilizers in Europe more expensive.

The blockade has raised concerns about food security around the world, particularly in Africa and South Asia, where countries rely heavily on Gulf supplies.

The Middle East takes only 3 percent of ammonia from the EU and 1 to 2 percent of nitrogen fertilizers from abroad, so the closure of the Strait of Hormuz did not have a significant impact on European supplies.

But the bloc is still reeling from high global prices and rising energy costs because nitrogen fertilizers in Europe are produced using gas, which has become more expensive due to the disruption of the strait – while other countries are at risk of higher costs due to reduced supply.

Nitrogen fertilizer prices in Europe are now about 70 percent higher than the 2024 average, according to reports from the organization’s plan.

This risk became apparent after Russia’s annexation of Ukraine in 2022, when rising gas prices forced several European refineries to cut back or temporarily shut down because production was no longer profitable.

The committee says its new plan combines quick measures to improve affordability and asset security with long-term measures to boost domestic employment and reduce dependence on imports.

What does the EU want?

The plan includes emergency financial support for farmers through the EU agricultural budget, financial schemes and flexible advance payments under the Common Agricultural Policy.

The agency is also looking at ways to help farmers reduce their reliance on artificial fertilizers such as organic fertilizers and use fertilizers more efficiently.

In a second measure, the EU has changed its ban on certain nitrogen fertilizers, including urea and ammonia, from countries other than Russia and Belarus. Some nitrogen fertilizers that are sold abroad now face prices between 5.5 and 6.5 percent. The news agency Reuters reported that the suspension could save immigrants around 60 million euros ($68m).

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the plan aims to build a “strong European fertilizer industry” and help farmers and accelerate “sustainable, home-grown solutions”.

But Ireland’s agriculture minister, Martin Heydon, warned that rising fertilizer prices due to the Middle East crisis could affect food prices and the competitiveness of European farmers.

“The increase in fertilizer prices due to the crisis in the Middle East will affect the cost of food production and, as a result, the economic stability and competitiveness of European farmers,” he said.

Which countries are most visible?

The effect is not widespread across Europe, with Ireland particularly vulnerable as it has little domestic fertilizer production and is heavily dependent on imports. His intensive livestock farming system also relies on nitrogen fertilization for grass, with most farmers buying between February and September.

Ireland will export 1.7 million tonnes of fertilizer in 2025, leaving farmers exposed to global price fluctuations.

Some countries are better equipped. Finland has been maintaining safe reserves that include fertilizers, grain and oil. Sweden has also announced plans to stockpile fertiliser, seeds and grain as part of a “total security measure” after joining NATO.

There are also divisions within the EU over where Brussels should go. Italy and France have pushed for relief from the bloc’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which adds a price to exports that emit more carbon.

Some agricultural organizations say the carbon levy has become another cost to farmers in times of crisis. Environmental groups, however, have warned Brussels not to weaken nitrogen-fixing rules, saying that doing so could increase pollution and harm health if extra nitrates enter the water.

Poland and Germany, which are the biggest producers of nitrogen fertilizers, have been focused on opposing any measures that would weaken the protection of the domestic industry – thus they are strongly opposed to tax cuts on imports.

Will food prices go up?

EU officials do not expect an immediate shock to food prices, with many farmers in the bloc still using fertilizers bought before the Iran war disrupted supply chains.

But officials are worried that the rising cost of fertilizers could cause problems in the food supply sector at the end of the year. Fertilizer affects food prices late, since gas becomes fertilizer, fertilizer then feeds crops, and crops become food – so the effects are often felt up to six months after the first disturbance.

Meanwhile, there are fears that anger in rural areas that have already been affected by high oil, energy and additional costs could lead to public opposition to the EU’s green policies at a time when right-wing and populist groups are on the rise in Europe.

But Europe is still less transparent than most regions. The most dangerous are the countries that depend on the fertilizers and energy of the Gulf, especially in parts of Africa and South Asia.