In Lebanon, everything and nothing has changed since 2000 | Israel is attacking Lebanon

Twenty-six years ago this week, Israel was forced to end its 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon. Much has changed since then, but Lebanon and Israel still cling to the policies that dragged them into today’s war, a war that has torn Iran apart, drawn in the United States, and now threatens the world economy.

Palestine remains a major issue in the region and around the world. This is why Israel began attacking pro-Palestinian forces in Lebanon in the 1970s, years before Hezbollah was established, and why the domestic conflict has grown ever since. Iran’s support for Hezbollah after 1982 turned Lebanon into a flashpoint between Iran and Israel; today, with the United States fighting alongside Israel, the front has grown into a regional war. At its heart is Hezbollah, the central pillar of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” that opposes the Israeli-American regime.

Lebanon can be seen as a small part of this region and the world. But it deserves more attention because it was, and still is, the fire that fueled 78 years of Israeli-Lebanon-Palestinian conflict into today’s war.

A lot has changed in Lebanon since 2000. Advanced missile, drone and radar technology now creates a balance of power, above Iran and Hezbollah which are expanding often to escape US-Israel security. Lebanon’s economy has collapsed, its people have been driven from their homes repeatedly, and Israel has destroyed towns and villages in the south, unleashing the doctrine of urban destruction that it launched in Beirut’s Dahiyeh in 2006, and later in Gaza. Hezbollah was badly beaten, but it was reborn as a very thin force, which is again preventing Israel from conquering Lebanon, or creating another safe haven within it.

The regional picture has also changed. Syria’s role as Hezbollah’s link to Iran has collapsed, and Iran itself has been devastated by the US-Israeli attack. However, Tehran seems determined to see Lebanon involved in any agreement that ends the war. The United States has been openly supporting Israel, pressuring President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to “disarm” Hezbollah and remove the threat to Israel, or face the destruction of Gaza through Lebanon. Other powers, including China, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan and Russia, have pressured in various ways to end the war with Iran and restore stability and sovereignty to Lebanon.

Amid the political turmoil, several conditions from the pre-2000 era persist in Lebanon. The public is still divided on Hezbollah’s role as a military force that provides the only force against Israel. The government seems unable to act, politically or militarily, due to lack of funds, domestic cohesion or military power. Sometimes it is accompanied by Israeli or American pressure: “disarming” Palestinian camps, or meeting Israeli officials in Washington with the support of pro-Israel Washington.

Washington has also linked financial aid to Lebanon’s reconstruction and Beirut’s compliance with US-Israeli commitments. His pro-Israel bias is evident in his willingness to ignore Israel’s violations of the last two accords, and his legal support for Israel’s right to attack any Lebanese it deems dangerous, while denying that the Lebanese are a threat to Israel’s same rights.

The Lebanese government is also feeling the pressure of a disaffected, impoverished population, angry because of the continuous Israeli attacks which, in 2026 alone, killed more than 3,000 people, displaced 1.2 million people and destroyed many villages and small towns. It accepts its talks with Israel as an attempt to resolve its military crisis, using US pressure to stop the attacks and allow Beirut to re-establish control over its territory.

Surrounding these old and new events is a historical event: Iran and Hezbollah, with the help of foreign allies, defeated the fierce attacks of Israel and America and twice forced their most powerful, nuclear-armed enemies to agree to a cease-fire and renegotiate, first in Iran at the beginning of April, then in Lebanon a few days later. The Lebanon deal must now extend to the US-Iran. The suspension of the two wars appears to reflect the weakness of the US-Israeli relationship in the region, political problems for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and new diplomatic opportunities for Iran, Hezbollah and its allies.

What can we learn from all this? Perhaps military power, however brutal or murderous, cannot tell the truth in the Middle East. Forts and “safeguards”, new Israeli settlements, local Israeli allies, armed forces, constant airstrikes, the entire US-backed Israeli playbook, can all be dismissed as past events.

How the new diplomatic relationship will look in Lebanon remains to be seen. But Iran and Hezbollah, having survived their “existential” wars and now seeking a permanent end, could weaken Israel’s actions and help restructure Lebanon’s internal affairs. Ideally this would lead Hezbollah, the government in Beirut and all of Lebanon to settle, once and for all, on a long-term partnership with Israel that respects Lebanese sovereignty.

If it were to happen, it would force both sides to resolve, in fairness, the main issue that they have ignored for 78 years and that has led to an endless war: Palestine’s freedom. Rigorous and assertive communication, along with effective preventive measures, will determine whether the current actions produce the desired results.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect Al Jazeera’s influence.