Struggle for power in the world’s narrow ocean

It has been hard to forget since the effective closing of the Strait in Hormuz.

Hundreds of ships, rather than the usual ones, have passed through the channel since then March 5.

“This seems to be a global problem, a bit similar to what happened with Covid-19,” says Rystad’s Abramov. Petrol and diesel prices have risen, and jet fuel and fertilizers are already in short supply; food prices are expected to rise, while the next phase of the crisis could lead to oil shortages and stop industries, experts. he said.

Policymakers debate when a recession might begin. “The word on everyone’s lips is recession,” said a leading European industrialist. “The more this goes on, the more I worry.”

As the chaos has dragged on for months, companies have been forced to find ways to work together. Others are trying to transport goods over land – either through existing oil pipelines or using cars.

The Danish Logistics Group DSV, the market leader in the Middle East, is moving goods to Saudi Arabia and Turkey. “When things go well, you don’t think your job is important, but if you can’t carry goods, people there can’t eat,” says Jens Lund, the company’s CEO.s head.

Lots, however, can only replace a small portion of the energy provided by large ships and cargo ships, while border crossings and difficult terrain can be slow. their movements.

A battle for control

Western countries have been concerned about access to the Middle East, fearing that any regional conflict could limit access to the Red Sea, Suez or the Bosphorus.

But Trump has placed the Panama Canal at the heart of his vision of hemispheric security – accusing China of trying to control the waterway, and threatening to impose its own control on it. The Hong Kong-based group operated two ports on the canal, until Panama terminated its contracts earlier this year. China has dismissed the US president’s claims as baseless and said it wants to uphold the rules neutral channel.

However, Trump’s actions could encourage Beijing to “restart the construction of the Nicaraguan canal”, says Jensen, referring to the permit granted to a Chinese businessman in 2013 to build a new waterway – even if only partially. about that.

Following Trump’s threats and the termination of port agreements, China has increased inspections of Panamanian-flagged ships, which led to reports that the ships were refloating, he added. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in March that the visit was within the rules and regulations.

A Chinese expert in Beijing, who asked not to be identified, said that Panama’s move on ports “will not be forgotten by Beijing, which will make its power visible to ensure that this does not happen again in other important routes”.

“Currently, the cost is very low (for countries like Panama), but I think in the future, this will not be allowed,” he said. He says.