Why 2026’s Hurricane Season Won’t Be As Bad

Atlantic hurricane season it’s almost upon us, and the first signs are that it may be less than usual. But it’s not a reason to remove yours weather app and ignore predictions.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration It is forecasting eight to 14 tropical cyclones, of which three to six will be hurricanes and one or three will be Category 3 or higher.

“The main driving force behind this is El Niño,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs.

Known for the tongue of tropical water that moves across the Pacific, El Niño is expected to appear this summer. This tropical ocean also changes the climate around the world. In the tropical Atlantic, El Niño creates winds that make hurricanes more difficult. What is happening can sometimes be confused with what is happening on land. (The opposite is true in the Pacific, and NOAA is forecasting active weather along that coast.)

During the last three El Niños, hurricane intensity—a measure of how strong and long-lived a hurricane is—was very low.

That said, El Niño, although very strong, is one of many factors that affect hurricane season. Local ocean temperatures can help hurricanes form and gain strength, and the Atlantic Ocean is currently warmer than usual.

At the same time, dust from the Sahara can move the atmosphere and prevent storms from forming. It is also difficult to predict when its plums will start. This is what happened last year, when a few less storms were produced despite the forecast. Although the work was less than expected, last year was still good Hurricane Melissaone of the strongest hurricanes ever to hit the Atlantic.

All of this means that weather forecasting is a useful guide to what to expect, and it’s good for government agencies and governments to provide information and resources. But it’s what happens with individual storms that counts.

“While we’re looking forward to a less severe Atlantic season, it’s important to understand that it only takes one,” Jacobs said, noting that even in quiet years, Category 5 storms have fallen.

The Trump administration has cut staff at NOAA and reduced the collection of other resources, such as weather balloons, that can affect forecasting. Jacobs highlighted the importance of new visuals, including aerial drones that will be used for the first time.

NOAA has also increased the use of climate intelligence models trained on historical data. In the hurricane season of 2025, the organization tested an example of a hurricane developed by Google DeepMind. Late last year, it also released AI weather models for use in active forecasting, in addition to older weather models that use equations to predict the weather.

Organization he says that the AI ​​version of its advanced model provides better forecasts of hurricanes—the common name for hurricanes—although it lags behind weather models in predicting their strength.