Mercato madness… sets the date for a billion euro deal

There has been a significant increase in the value of transactions in recent years, especially after Brazil’s Neymar moved from Barcelona to PSG in 2017 for €222 million, the value of his release clause in his contract.

After that, the big clubs began to increase the value of the penalty clauses in the players’ contracts to avoid similar deals, until the case reached the one billion euro mark, such as: Vinicius Junior Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé.

According to AS newspaper, football could be just five years away from reaching a transfer deal that seems impossible, or at least what seems impossible today.

Bank of America claims that if the market continues to grow at its current rate, the first transfer deal worth €1 billion could be completed in 2031.

The number is staggering when you read it… one billion euros per player. More than four times what Paris Saint-Germain paid to sign Neymar, the most expensive transfer in history to date.

This expectation appears in the “Beautiful Game” report prepared by the economic analysis department of the American bank for the 2026 World Cup. The report explains that the prices of football players continue to increase year on year and if this increase continues, the market will pass a new historical barrier.

The report states that transfer fees are growing by 37% annually. In other words, the market continues to grow significantly. In other words, signing a contract with a star player has become very expensive.

And it’s not just their performance on the field. Big players don’t make money just playing football anymore. They also sell their shirts, attract sponsors, increase viewership and increase their social media following. The football player has become almost a global brand.

That’s why the bank is proposing an idea that until recently seemed like science fiction. players can end up acting as investment financial assets, almost like shares in a company.

In recent years, there have been reports of huge deals involving Saudi Arabia. Names like Vinicius and Mbappe have been associated with astronomical numbers ever since Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund entered the world of football.

But the report distinguishes these offers from “real” market value and shows that many of these sums are linked to strategies to build international image and boost influence, rather than reflecting a player’s true sporting value.

In fact, the bank itself indicates that Saudi Arabia is gradually moving away from unlimited spending policies, something that has already happened in other sports such as golf.

But the report is not limited to contracts, it also looks at the future of how we view football.

Football is changing at an amazing pace. Not so long ago, paying 100 million for a player seemed crazy. Then Neymar came and shattered all expectations… And now, for the first time, someone dares to predict the next flight: 2031, the year when the transfer market can reach one billion euros.