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Donald Trump’s efforts to remove the Republican Congress Thomas Massie has turned Kentucky’s Fourth District primary into one of the most watched and expensive races of the US midterms.
Massie, an independent known for repeatedly clashing with his own party, drew the ire of Trump after he criticized the US strike on Iran and helped release files related to Jeffrey Epstein. Now, the seven-year congressman is facing a financial challenge from Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL approved by the president.
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With more than $20m spent on the race ahead of Tuesday’s election, the Kentucky primary is seen as a major test of Trump’s influence on the Republican Party, and whether Republican voters will support a president or lawmaker who has made a reputation for flouting party leadership.
Kentucky also has a primary for the open US Senate seat vacated by former Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who has served seven terms.
On the Republican side, the crowded field includes US Representative Andy Barr, who has Trump’s endorsement, and former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron.
Democrats are also competing in Senate races, congressional races, state legislative elections and local races across Kentucky.
Here’s what we know about the competition:
When do polls open and close?
Kentucky voters will go to the polls on Tuesday, May 19, in the primary election.
Polling stations will open at 6am (10:00 GMT) local time and close at 6pm (22:00 GMT) local time. Voters who are still in line when the polls close will still be allowed to vote.
Most of Kentucky is in the Eastern Time Zone, so polls will close at 6pm ET (22:00 GMT). In the western part of the country, which follows Central Time, polls will close at 6pm local time, equivalent to 7pm ET (23:00 GMT).
What races are on the ballot in Kentucky?
In Louisville, voters will cast ballots in many local races, including races for:
- Mayor
- Secretary
- Sheriff
- Several Louisville Metro Council seats
Federal species
Kentucky voters will also have primary elections for:
- The US Senate
- US House of Representatives
A variety of state laws are also on the ballot:
- All 100 seats in the Kentucky House of Representatives
As of April 24, there were about 3.4 million registered voters in Kentucky, including about 1.6 million registered Republicans and about 1.4 million Democrats.
What are the most important races to watch?
Two Republican races are expected to draw national attention in Kentucky: the US Senate primary and the battle for the 4th Congressional District, where divisions within the Republican Party, including the war on Iran, have become a major issue.
Fighting for Kentucky’s 4th District
The race is being held in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, which stretches from just outside Louisville along the Ohio River to parts of Appalachia.
Among the competition is Thomas Massieone of the few Republicans who continued to publicly oppose Trump. Since the president’s inauguration, many Republican opponents have aligned themselves with Trump, left politics or lost primaries against Trump supporters.
Massie has opposed several policies supported by Trump, criticized the Iran war and US aid to Israel, and supported efforts to limit Trump’s ability to launch a war against Iran without Congressional approval.
Trump and his allies instead backed challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL, to turn the race into Trump’s biggest test for the Republican Party.
The race has also attracted significant funding from pro-Israel groups, and is increasingly seen as a referendum on the divisions among Republicans on Trump’s commitment and loyalty.
US Senate
Kentucky’s Republican Senate primary is once again receiving national attention as former Senator Mitch McConnell steps down from the Republican leadership after nearly 17 years at the top of the Senate.
“I changed last week 82. The end of my contribution is closer than I wanted,” McConnell said earlier this year when announcing his decision. “Father Time is not defeated.”
The race is being scrutinized because it represents a major shift in the Republican Party and a momentary shift as Trump continues to reshape the Republican Party around his “Make America Great Again” campaign.
For years, Mr. McConnell represented the traditional Republican establishment, pursuing foreign policy and closely aligned with the Reagan-Bush era of conservatism. But Trump’s rise has also reshaped the party around a populist movement that has unsettled Republicans like McConnell.
Representative Andy Barr and former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who are competing for the Republican nomination in Tuesday’s primary, were both seen as close allies of McConnell. But both have also tried to distance themselves from the former senator as Trump’s influence on Republican voters has grown.
Although McConnell no longer aligns with today’s MAGA politics, he still has significant influence and a loyal following in Kentucky, forcing candidates to sidestep Trump’s grievances by honoring the former senator.
Barr received Trump’s endorsement earlier this month, with the president calling her “a vote we can count on because she knows what it takes to make THINGS HAPPEN”.
University of Kentucky political analyst Stephen Voss said the candidates are walking a “razor’s edge” between Republicans still loyal to McConnell and voters disenchanted with the old Reagan-Bush establishment.
Why are the Kentucky primaries important?
The Republican Party races are being closely watched because they reflect the biggest debates affecting the Republican Party today ahead of the midterm elections, including Trump’s influence on the party, political divisions and the state of the Republican Party.
Democrats enter Kentucky’s Senate race as front-runners in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic U.S. senator in years, but several candidates say they may still compete on the economy, health care and political discontent.
When are results expected?
Kentucky’s general election results are expected to begin voting as soon as Tuesday night, although the timing will vary by state and county.
In the 2024 primaries, the Associated Press first reported at 6:06pm ET (22:06 GMT), just minutes after voting closed in most states. The final update of the night came at 9:47pm ET (01:47 GMT Wednesday), with more than 99.9% of the votes counted.
Kentucky requires direct recounts for the US Senate, US House of Representatives, State Assembly and nearly all state offices, if the vote is 0.5 percent of the total vote or less.
What do the polls say about the race?
Polling in Kentucky’s most watched race, the Republican primary in the 4th Congressional District, shows a tight race between Massie and Gallrein.
A recent poll by Political Polls on May 18 showed that the race was tied, while other polls also showed both sides getting closer. However, the limited number of regional elections and the unpredictability of candidates make the race difficult to predict.
