‘Terrible’: Why is extreme heat sweeping across South Asia? | | Weather News

A sweltering and dangerous heatwave sweeping across South Asia has brought the heat to a dangerous level, disrupting daily life for hundreds of millions of people and raising new concerns about the insecurity of one of the world’s most populous regions.

Countries including India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have seen temperatures rise above average, and others areas approaching or exceeding 45-50 degrees Celsius (113-122 degrees Fahrenheit).

Recommended Articles

list of things 3end of series

In Pakistan, at least 10 people were reported dead from a second heat wave on Tuesday, according to local emergency services, while more heat-related deaths were also reported in neighboring India.

Such conditions are not unusual in the region, as heat waves have always occurred in South Asia before the start of the rainy season. However, scientists and weather organizations say the intensity, duration and geographic extent of the recent warming is unprecedented.

Increasingly, experts are linking these risks to human-driven climate change, which is making the natural climate worse.

As governments scramble to respond, the crisis is revealing stark disparities across the region – who is at risk, and who can cope.

What is causing the warm weather at the beginning of the year?

India is facing “a very hot and very hot climate”, Anjal Prakash, director of research at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy think tank in India, told Al Jazeera.

“The high-pressure system controls, trapping the hot air near the surface like a dome, preventing it from rising and cooling,” Prakash said.

“The sinking air compresses, heats, and blocks the clouds, resulting in persistent solar heat.”

He added that a number of weather-related factors also lead to heat. “Weak pre-monsoon and delayed El Nino will prevent cooling,” Prakash said.

El Nino begins when sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, especially along the western coast of South America, “become warmer than usual”, often accompanied by a “swing” of the morning trade winds from America to Asia, according to NASA. In contrast, the La Nina season tends to be slightly cooler than the average global temperature.

The World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations’ weather and climate agency, says El Nino can occur from May to July.

“After a neutral period at the beginning of the year … there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by a strengthening,” WMO director Wilfran Moufouma-Okia warned last month.

The WMO added that while there is no evidence that climate change is increasing the number of El Nino events or increasing their frequency, it could affect their effects.

Which countries are most affected by global warming?

India

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted higher than average temperatures across the country, warning that a period of extreme heat is expected in the western and coastal areas this month.

Heatwaves are expected to be more frequent than usual along the eastern coast, along the Himalayas, and over western Maharashtra and Gujarat, it said.

“There will be an increase in temperature along the east coast and Gujarat by four to five days in May,” IMD director Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, adding that temperatures in some areas could rise between three and five degrees Celsius (5.4 and 9 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal.

In parts of northwest and central India, the temperature has crossed 46C (114.8) in some areas. In Maharashtra, the cities of Akola and Amravati recorded 46.9C (116.4F) and 46.8C (116.2) on April 26. Local media reported that the 90 hottest cities were in India on April 24.

Several deaths have been recorded since the start of the heat wave. In the last week of April, two school teachers died of heatstroke, and four others were reported to have died in eastern West Bengal due to heatstroke, Indian media reported.

Pakistan

India’s western neighbor is also facing the heatwave, with officials warning it could last for days.

On Saturday, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) predicted continued heatwaves in central and upper Sindh province, and urged citizens to “avoid exposure to the sun during the day and stay hydrated”.

In Karachi, the country’s most populous city, the temperature reached 44C (111F) on Monday this week – the highest recorded since 2018, according to the PMD. At least 10 people were reported dead on Tuesday, local emergency workers said, as extreme heat swept through the city.

The Sindh cities of Jacobabad and Sukkur are expected to see temperatures of up to 46C (114.8F) this weekend.

Bangladesh

Capital of Bangladesh. Dhaka, along with its districts of Faridpur, Rajshahi and Pabna, was hit hard in mid- to late April, recording temperatures between 37C (98.6F) and 38C (100.4F).

Temperatures have been rising in Bangladesh for some time. In 2024, officials predicted 24 days of hot weather in April, the most in 75 years – with temperatures exceeding 40C (104F) in some states – surpassing the previous record of 23 days in 2019.

How does climate change affect people in the region?

Kartikeya Bhatotia, a researcher at Harvard University’s Mittal South Asia Institute, said extreme heat affects people “in several ways”, but the effects are not very uniform.

“The most damaging is physical: heat stress impairs the body’s ability to function properly, leading to cardiovascular stress, kidney damage, sleep disturbances, and an increase in chronic diseases including diabetes, respiratory disease, and mental illness,” Bhatotia told Al Jazeera. “The elderly, pregnant women, young children, and those with pre-existing conditions face the greatest risk.”

One of the challenges is “sustainability”, he said – and low-income workers can also be exposed.

“Those in poorly insulated, poorly ventilated buildings are exposed to higher temperatures than those who are able to cool, and they are often the same people who work outside.”

“Approximately 380 million Indians, about three-quarters of the working population, work without heat. Lost working hours cost daily wages, and the result is food and medicine that are available in hot weather and often without real heat.”

What are governments doing about climate change?

Bhatotia said India’s much-vaunted “heat preparedness” system is failing to protect the most vulnerable, as temperatures continue to rise across the country.

“India is a pioneer in Heat Action Plans, urban roads that include early warnings and water, cooling zones, social messaging and rest periods,” Bhatotia said.

“This saves lives, but it tends to reach those who are already in the legal system.” He warned that “traditional workers and daily bettors – who are the most visible – are outside the protection that these plans are designed for, and the implementation is not followed or enforced.”

According to Bhatotia, tackling the problem requires “comprehensive solutions” that “must be spread across all states and their communities – housing, urban planning, health systems, worker safety and disaster management”, he said. He stressed that “health systems need additional resources, well-trained staff and monitoring of work so that heat-related illnesses and deaths can be accounted for”.

Long-term resilience against rising temperatures will depend on the structural changes underway, he added. “Building regulations should mandate that design be carried out before construction,” while “worker protection should be established for casual workers”. Without such changes, he warned, the risk of warming will continue beyond what is currently happening.

Across Pakistan’s border, Islamabad-based meteorologist and academic Fahad Saeed has spoken about the country’s preparedness and transparency in the face of climate change. He also pointed out the historical gap between the official people and the real situation, citing the example of Karachi and heat wave problem there for the last ten years.

“It is important for the government, first of all, to provide accurate numbers, collect the facts, and inform the world that it is a disaster,” he told Al Jazeera.

He also said that the lack of disclosure is due to governance problems, saying that the government officials may downplay the problem in order to avoid a political fallout.

However, Saeed emphasized that acknowledging the extent of “waste and damage” is important – not only to collect public information but also to find international climate finance and develop effective response strategies. Without accurate data, he cautioned, sustainable change strategies may not be achievable.

“Sweeping the dust under the carpet is not going to solve it,” he said. Without facing a real loss, “it will be very difficult to make any kind of strategy.”

Will heat waves get worse in the future?

Yes.

“Climate models show that both warming and warming will increase in South Asia over the next few decades, even with less precipitation,” said Harvard’s Bhatotia.

Although India has warmed at a slower rate than the global average in recent years, Bhatotia said this was due to temporary cooling from aerosol pollution and widespread irrigation.

“All of this is expected to weaken in the coming years, which could increase the temperature more than historical data suggests,” he added.

However, he emphasized that rising temperatures do not mean rising temperatures are harmful if the right measures are used.

“Good adaptation planning, action, and early warnings linked to an effective response can reduce damage even as temperatures rise,” he said, adding that “the goal is to reduce the impact of heat stress on the environment”.