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Beirut, Lebanon – Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and pressure on the Lebanese government to disarm Iran’s Shia group Hezbollah are fueling internal strife, experts told Al Jazeera.
Israel is leaning on this division as a way to try to get people to fight, they say. The strategy is working, they add, pointing to a recent list of sectarian and political groups.
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“It’s not a (military) situation. They know exactly what they’re doing,” Michael Young, a Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told Al Jazeera. “When they emptied the southern areas, they knew very well that many of these people would go inside Beirut and into the non-Shia areas.” And of course, I think this was their effort to create sectarian conflict and, in a way, put more pressure on the Lebanese government.
On March 2, Israel escalated its war in Lebanon. This was the second increase in the past two years and came after the November 2024 ceasefire agreement that Israel violated more than 10,000 times, according to the United Nations peacekeeping organization.
While Israel bombed southern Lebanon repeatedly during an expected ceasefire, it increased its attacks on Beirut and other areas after Hezbollah responded to the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, on February 28.
Israel has killed more than 5,000 people in Lebanon since October 2023. In March, the Israeli army conquered Lebanon for the second time since 2024, where they are now. systematic destruction of southern towns and villages. Israel has forcibly evicted 1.2 million people, ordering people from their homes in southern Lebanon and areas south of Beirut.
When the ceasefire between the United States and Iran began on April 8, many Lebanese wondered whether they would be included. Israel answered the question in the affirmative killing more than 350 people one day, and 100 Israeli attacks within ten minutes across Lebanon.
The ceasefire was extended by Donald Trump, but Israel continues to attack southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah has responded by fighting Israeli forces. Lebanon has agreed to lead talks with Israel to end the war and occupation of southern Lebanon.
Internally, however, Lebanese people and politicians are deeply divided over the issue of negotiations with Israel. Hezbollah and its supporters oppose direct talks, they prefer direct talks, while the Lebanese government is being pressured by the US and Israel to hold direct talks, perhaps even meeting between the leaders of Israel and Lebanon.
“The Israelis are trying to impose pressure on Lebanon,” Young said. “They are destroying villages, pushing the Shia community to areas where there are no Shia communities, and the goal was to increase sectarian tensions.”
Israel’s goal was to disarm Hezbollah, but experts said Israel knew it could not be done by force alone.
“The goal remains a bit of a mystery because Israel knows very well that the Lebanese army cannot disarm Hezbollah and (the Israeli army) admitted that they could not do this because it would involve taking over all of Lebanon, which they have no intention of doing,” Young said.
This is why experts say that Israel’s goal is to force the Lebanese people to meet, to force Lebanon to accept it. And the policy appears to have served to exacerbate internal tensions.
Insults from pro-Hezbollah and anti-Hezbollah political leaders have spread over the past two months. Hezbollah’s Wafiq Safa and Mahmoud Qamati have both warned the Lebanese government that its decisions to end the crisis. restricting the group’s military activities they will roll over.
Some right-wing Christians in parliament have spoken out against those praising the Israeli army.
LBCI, a Lebanese television station founded by the Anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces in the 1980s but now operating as an independent station, caused an uproar by posting cartoons of Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem and other Hezbollah members mockingly portrayed as characters in the mobile game ‘Angry Birds’.
Some Hezbollah supporters responded by posting provocative photos of Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai on social media.
“These publications are unfortunately part of a plan to distort the image of the resistance (Hezbollah) and serve the enemy of Israel and America through this campaign that aims to oppose and target Sheikh Naim Qassem,” Qassem Kassir, a journalist close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.
“Of course, there have been oppositions against the opposition that involve Patriarch Rai, however, the leadership of Hezbollah, the Supreme Shia Islamic Council and Dar al-Ifta al-Jaafari issued a statement against this,” added Kassir, referring to the Shia religious organizations in Lebanon.
The internal conflict is the result of the Israeli war, which, to some extent, fueled the factions and divisions of the Lebanese people during the war. Hezbollah in particular is trying to regain the power it lost in November 2024 – after a campaign in which Israel inflicted heavy damage and killed the popular leader Hassan Nasrallah – Young said.
But there is real disagreement and division in the war, and this is reflected in many public comments in Lebanon.
“No one can control people or their actions,” Kassir said. “It is true that this creates fear because of conflicts, but nowadays nobody is interested in creating conflicts.”
As long as the war continues, such words and events will come to the fore. Experts say Israel is counting on this to force the Lebanese government to accept its peace terms.
“What the Israelis are doing is just trying to build their political profile and to be able to impose their demands on Lebanon and prove it to the Americans,” Young said. “They want to bring the impossible to Lebanon. And if Lebanon fails to act, Israel can start putting in their own ways.”