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Four years after their victory in the Lusail Stadium in Qatar 2022, Argentina has the opportunity to become the third side to defend the World Cup crown.
They may be led by the legendary Lionel Messi, they may be the champions of South America – indeed, their hosts may be the reigning champions of the competition – but they are not the favourites.
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Standing in their way of claiming their first title for more than half a century, since Brazil defended their title in 1962, are European champions – and tournament favorites – Spain.
Al Jazeera Sport looks at why the defenders are considered outsiders for Sunday’s final and what are their chances of upsetting the odds.
Why is Spain favored to win the FIFA World Cup 2026 final?
Spain entered the 2026 edition as the number one team in the world and favorites to lift the trophy, but lost the mantle midway through the campaign against France.
Kylian Mbappe’s star turn and Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele has been well supported by Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola, with his Paris Saint-Germain teammate and former France international Desire Doue out of the picture.
Going into the final clash between Europe’s giants, the French were favorites to lift the title – as long as they could see off Spain.
They could not.
Spain didn’t give the French their sniff 2-0 win and Mbappe, Dembele and Co plowed solitary and desperate lines in their limited attempts to lay the groundwork for their team to gain a foothold.
After being held by debutants Cape Verde in their opening game of the tournament, the show was on Spain after that.
He bounced through Uruguay, Portugal and Belgium and failed to catch fire – until he met the French.
Now Spain’s confidence has been restored – if it was doubtful.
Which Spanish powers should affect Argentina?
The question is perhaps easier to answer as to where are their weaknesses? It turns out that there aren’t many and that’s why their steady performance until the semifinals was amazing.
Coming into the competition, coach Luis de la Fuente he tried to gather his troops – and the country – when talking about “united” Spain.
No Real Madrid player was selected in the Spanish squad for the tournament, which raised questions about the European champions’ set-up.
Eight of the 26 players played for Barcelona, who last season easily defended the title.
“For me, the biggest team there is – the biggest – is the Spanish national team,” said de la Fuente.
“I don’t look at where the players come from and where they came from, what matters is the Spanish players who are proud to represent their national team and to be in a united country.”
It is not a Catalonia conundrum for de la Fuente to solve.
Among the starting midfielders and attacking players in Spain, Fabian Ruiz is the leader among the players in the Champions League PSG, Alex Baena is the favorite of Atletico Madrid on the side, Rodri is the winner of the 2024 Ballon d’Or of Manchester City, and the only leader, the international Mikel Oyarza.
The 29-year-old’s five goals in the competition so far could give him the best record in Spanish football history if the competition can be secured.
Then there is the Spanish backbone of Barcelona. Lamine Yamal is the new boy of international football – although he campaigned quietly after a back injury before the tournament – and, together with his Real-mate Mbappe, he is seen as the successor to Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo as world champions of the game.
The 19-year-old provided plenty of star power to help Spain win Euro 2024, but his fans will be waiting for his magic moment at the World Cup.
Dani Olmo is the main threat, slotting in between the defensive duo in midfield and looking to feed the midfielders and the striker.
Pau Cubarsi, at just 19 years old, has established himself as a club and country insider.
Spain’s success is perhaps best illustrated by the fact that one of the game’s most sought-after players, the 24-year-old Athletic Bilbao winger, has yet to feature, despite being involved in their Euro 2024 campaign.
Will Spain and Argentina make the World Cup final?
It’s hard to see the last one playing like Argentina 2-1 semifinal win They did it against England – their latest change, after coming from behind to beat Egypt in the last 16.
The English, with stars from Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Arsenal and – with Anthony Gordon’s latest move – Barcelona,
After that, the transition – aided by England’s comeback – saw Argentina end up with 64 percent of the possession throughout the game.
England are not famous for keeping the ball, but Spain are, and they will look to hold the ball in the middle, as the English did until their goal, and reduce the threat of Messi by wearing Argentina down.
If Spain takes the lead, at any time, do not expect de la Fuente to order all his soldiers to defend their box as Thomas Tuchel advised England to do in Atlanta on Wednesday.
Rodri and Ruiz have been ordered to control the game from start to finish. Yamal, Olmo and Baena will have the task of supporting Oyarzabal at all times and, when it comes down to it, countering the movement if Argentina lose everything in the run of the game as they did against England.
Is Messi Argentina’s best chance against Spain?
After being at the center of Barcelona and Spanish football for nearly two decades, Lionel Messi will be seen as Argentina’s best chance to defend their title.
With eight goals in the competition already – and being named the winner of the Golden Boot without beating Oyarzabal’s hat-trick or more – Messi has put to rest any doubts about his ability to continue leading the way for Argentina at the age of 39.
Although he was isolated in the big final victory against England, it was Messi who provided two assists as Argentina made a late comeback. Lautaro Martinez was the beneficiary of one of those trips as he headed home an injury-time winner for his third goal of the tournament. Beyond those three, no other player from either side has scored three goals.
Martinez, who is in charge of Italian side Inter Milan, is expected to start from the bench in the final, with Atletico Madrid duo Julian Alvarez and Giuliano Simeone needed to run either side.
Behind the three will be a wall that the English could not overcome.
It starts with three strong players who will run all the games, Alexis Mac Allister, Leandro Paredes and Enzo Fernandez, who scored for his team in the semifinal.
Can Argentina’s defense keep Spain and Yamal away?
At the heart of Argentina’s defense is a group that divides opinion. Former England and Manchester United midfielder Gary Neville has described Lisandro Martinez and Cristian Romero as “the best, worst centre-halves in the world”.
“They seem to give a goal between them every game,” Neville said on the Overlap Podcast.
“But you see them, they’re scoring goals, they’re controlling the ball, they’re everywhere – it’s amazing.
“They are sometimes unfaithful, but in the end, it is a victory for fools.”
Romero, who plays for Tottenham Hotspur in the English Premier League, described the comments as “ridiculous”.
The pair, who are both 28 years old, will leave nothing to chance when the final kick of the tournament is kicked off and Martinez will not be disappointed by the criticism.
Neville’s former teammate at United, Paul Scholes, has previously said that the club would not win the title with Martinez at center – his height of 1.75 meters, which was one of the main reasons for this comment.
However, the Old Trafford crowd have taken Martinez to task for his cause, and their struggles at the back over the past two seasons have resulted in the defender’s long absences due to injury.
Oyarzabal is six centimeters taller than Martinez, but it is unlikely that the balls thrown endlessly into the box by Spain will solve the final.
Furthermore, the headlines are bound to be written by Barcelona’s past, present and, perhaps, future – but will it be the magic of Messi or Yamal that leaves its mark on this World Cup?
The game’s investors and financiers will be as hopeful as the fans that it is a beautiful moment from the winners who shine, not for the final, but leave their products without doubt and unchanged for the 2026 final.
