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A military emergency increase in Yemen it has undermined a fragile four-year alliance, threatening to escalate the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and cut off one of the world’s most important lifelines.
Following days of escalation, Yemen’s internationally recognized government bombed the runway at Sanaa International Airport on Monday in an attempt to prevent an Iranian airliner from landing. In swift retaliation, Houthi rebels fired on southern Saudi Arabia, blaming Riyadh for the attack on the airport – and declaring that the war against Yemen’s biggest neighbor is over.
Although the recent violence starts with the airport conflict, experts warn that the danger lies in the impact this explosion will have on the Bab al-Mandeb road, if it escalates.
Sanaa airport
The causes of the recent crisis reflect the deep divisive lines running through Yemen. The Yemeni government, backed by a Saudi-led coalition, justified its airstrikes by saying the Iranian plane was carrying military experts, drone technology, and communications equipment.
Houthi officials insist that the plane was carrying more than 200 patients in need of aid and a delegation from the funeral of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran. The Houthis eventually diverted the plane to Hodeidah and responded by firing missiles at Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport, which the Saudi-led coalition said it had captured.
Two maritime chokepoints
The resurgence of violence in Yemen comes at a critical time for global trade. With Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz again amid the ongoing war with the United States and Israel, Bab al-Mandeb has become a critical area.
“The situation in Yemen, or the entire region of Bab al-Mandeb, has been in the powder since the first day of the war,” said Ibrahim Fraihat, a professor of international conflict resolution at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, to Al Jazeera, saying that the “loss” of the conflict in the surrounding areas was inevitable.
For Tehran, shifting focus to the Red Sea provides an opportunity to counter Washington’s naval blockade in the Gulf. Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, has warned several times that the “axis of resistance” – an alliance backed by Iran that includes the Houthis – has the power to block all waterways.
Mohammad Cherkaoui, a professor of international conflict resolution, warned that when the pressure of America and the blockade of naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran may seek a new way through its allies. “If the Bab al-Mandeb crisis arises together with the Hormuz crisis, we will face an armed group that disrupts the stability and security of the Gulf,” Cherkaoui told Al Jazeera.
This method seems to be calculated. Mohammad Saleh Sedghian, director of the Arab Center for Iranian Studies, said of recent comments by Esmail Qaani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, who said of creating a “belt between the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb” to protect the fighting area.
‘Gate of Tears’
Historically known in Arabic as “The Gate of Tears” because of the ancient dangers of navigating its narrow waters, Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a 29km (18-mile) bottleneck that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.
About 12 percent of world trade passes through it every day, including cargo ships traveling between Asia and Europe.
Most importantly, the strait is a major energy source. In 2024, oil trade will flow through Bab al-Mandeb at about 4.0 million barrels per day. They it works as an important method for transporting crude oil, refined oil, and natural gas (LNG) to European and North American markets.
Closing event
With the increase in traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz amid the recent escalation between the US and Iran, the closure of Bab al-Mandeb. it would be very dangerous for energy markets around the world.
Iran has announced that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and US President Donald Trump has also suspended the blockade of all Iranian-linked vessels attempting to pass through the strait.
If Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz are closed at the same time, about 25 percent of the world’s oil and gas reserves will be closed. When ships are forced to go around southern Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, I add 10 to 14 days to shipping schedules. These deviations will cause shipping and insurance rates to skyrocket, leading to a major financial crisis around the world.
“If the Houthis decide to respond, they believe that Saudi Arabia initiated this … it will lead to a major escalation, and I am very concerned about the maritime movement in the Red Sea,” Bill Putnam, former head of the US Military Intelligence Readiness Command, told Al Jazeera.
Threats to pass through Saudi Arabia
The closure of the Bab al-Mandeb could also undermine the great opportunities that Saudi Arabia has achieved.
Unlike its Gulf neighbors – such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE, whose export capacity is severely restricted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – Saudi Arabia was able to cross the border using its own resources. East-West Pipeline.
1,200km (745-mile) pipeline work with Saudi Aramcoit connects the oilfield of Abqaiq in the east with the port city of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Recently restored to 7 million barrels per day after the attack, the pipeline has allowed Riyadh to safely ship large volumes of oil away from rival Gulf waters.
However, exports from Yanbu are entirely dependent on Bab al-Mandeb being open to ships traveling south to Asian markets. If the Houthi forces follow through on their threats and close the Red Sea, the successful passage of Saudi Arabia will not be useless, blocking its oil on the side of its neighbors and putting the world economy in trouble.
