History of El Niño threatens floods in East Africa and Asia | Stories of the Flood

Aid groups are warning that a stronger El Niño could cause flooding and famine from Somalia to Pakistan.

The expansion of the El Niño climate threatens to bring floods, disease and drought to some of the most vulnerable parts of East Africa and Asia, a humanitarian agency has warned.

On Monday, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) said Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan are among the most vulnerable countries, some of which are already dealing with ongoing emergencies.

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“We’re seeing multiple emergency situations changing at the same time, and the areas that are least equipped to deal with earthquakes are the ones that are on the way,” said Bob Kitchen, the IRC’s director of emergency operations.

The US Climate Prediction Center said on July 9 that El Niño is growing rapidly, with an 81 percent chance of being one of the strongest events since 1950, which should intensify between October and December.

The UN’s weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), said at the beginning of July that El Niño has caused the El Nino weather to disappear. it has already been made and it was predicted to intensify rapidly between July and September.

Meteorologist Daniel Swain said on his YouTube channel that sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are already at record levels this year, calling it “a big issue with big global implications”.

Areas in El Niño’s path are already suffering from drought, conflict and reduced aid budgets, leaving little energy to take on the threat.

Son is a natural change in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean that occurs again every two to seven years, when the trade winds that normally push the warm water to the west weaken and the temperature returns to the ocean.

The result is global warming, which often brings more rain to some areas and less to others. In East Africa, the season means mid-year dryness followed by rain from October to December, which forecasters say will be exacerbated this year by similar warming in the Indian Ocean.

In Somalia, heavy rains have repeatedly flooded areas of the capital, Mogadishu, this year.

The US-funded early warning agency FEWS NET has assessed the likely risk of famine in southern regions if floods later this year resemble those of 1997 or 2023, when the El Niño-Indian Ocean cycle submerged farms and displaced thousands of people.

Kenya’s weather agency has confirmed that El Niño is likely to continue for the rest of the year and has launched its national disaster plan ahead of the October-December rains, following the mid-year monsoon.

In Bangladesh, at least 15 Rohingya refugees have been killed and more than 10,000 displaced by landslides and floods in Cox’s Bazar camps since early July.

Pakistan is also facing an even split between drought and floods, with very low rainfall expected, although its northern highlands are vulnerable to sudden floods from glaciers.

The World Bank has warned that if El Niño takes hold, rice yields could drop by a fifth to a half in hard-hit South Asia and East Africa, where the staple food feeds hundreds of millions of people.

This could increase food insecurity and pressure on affordability, especially as the US-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation seem to be taking place. getting bigger again around the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy and fertilizer hub.

Fertilizer prices have already risen sharply this year.

Aid groups, including the International Rescue Committee, are urging donors to fund rescue efforts now rather than waiting for a disaster.