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And so there were four. As it happens, the four still standing in this World Cup are the same quartet that sit atop FIFA’s international food chain. A semi-final line-up for the ages. Aren’t we lucky?
Perhaps this was the inevitable result when the draw was picked in a way that made it impossible for the top nations to meet each other before this stage. But let’s not get into politics. Not now though. The result is two exciting ties starting with France vs Spain on Tuesday.
France are looking to become the third team after Germany and Brazil to reach three consecutive World Cup finals, while European champions Spain are set to make their second appearance in the last four. According to the official rankings, it’s first vs third.
But this European powerhouse is particularly familiar. Much like England-Argentina, this is a game with fascinating history. Reason enough to captivate most football-loving neutrals, it also contains a high percentage of the world’s best technicians and torturers. This cast is primetime viewing.
The question the world has been asking since the tournament began 33 days ago is how France can be beaten. How can you deny a free-wheeling front four led by Kylian Mbappe and supported by Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olis and Desiree Douy? Most don’t.
But Spain has a special license. One that allows them to control and force any other contrary. Their style starves opponents, boasting an average possession share that is unmatched in this tournament.
Spain’s patient build-up isn’t always glamorous, but it has a dual purpose. They came alive in the final third, the only nation to cross 1,000-plus passes into the metaphorical ‘end zone’, with an unwavering accuracy of 83.9 percent. And since they rarely give up possession, their defensive record is also exemplary. Defense by proxy.
Leaning towards both specialties is how Spain contain France while carefully curating their moments to strike. They are better set up than any other survivor to subvert the narrative about France’s inevitability. Nothing about such a high-stakes tie between European giants should be billed as a foregone conclusion.
But there are caveats. Spain’s artistic expression has only been glimpsed in this tournament. For a side packed with The artistsTheir creative edge has yet to take full form, relying on saves from substitute Mikel Merino to put up incredible performances against Portugal and Belgium in the last two rounds.
Lamine Yamal has been quiet and injury-plagued winger Nico Williams has only managed to play a part, while Mikael Warzabal’s four goals (against Saudi Arabia and Austria) have come against significantly weaker opposition.
Creatively, France is on the road ahead. They are the tournament’s second-highest scorers, post the most shots on target and have the highest expected-goal value. Captain and leading goalscorer Mbappe is unsurprisingly in the Golden Boot stakes with Lionel Messi. And they have no problem distributing scorers and different goals around the team.
If Mbappe is blocked – only Norway have stopped him from scoring this summer – then France’s attacking talent is just as capable. Didier Deschamps’ side became the first team since Brazil in 2002 to have two players score five goals in one tournament in one edition, before England’s dangermen accomplished the same feat.
Chances are, France’s aces have plenty of tricks up their sleeves. Such compelling evidence shows that Spain must suffer in moments. But they should not deviate from the strategic plan that makes them so complete.
It is a blueprint that renders them likely to reach their first final since their only World Cup win in 2010. In fact Spain have the most balanced mix of tactical dominance and technical prowess in this tournament. Former youth team coach Luis de la Fuente is renowned for providing clarity and consistency with a point of difference.
While Spain has historically relied entirely on holding the ball, modern iterations of this style are more dynamic. Rodri and Lamin Yamal are two of the best in their discipline and made this progress possible.
Quick vertical transitions mean Spain’s dangerous wingers can often isolate defenders in 1vs1 situations. Barcelona’s teen sensation thrived on it. You can count on Rodri to find him.
Spain’s upper hand in midfield will be most evident. Will surpass France. Rodri and Pedri set the tone, supported by the highly versatile Dani Olmo, the tournament’s most effective final-third passer.
Rodri is also used as a carrier, shifting the ball to Lamine Yamal, who has collected the most shot-ending carries of any forward (12).
In comparison, France’s two-man midfield, perhaps Manu Kone and Adrien Rabiot, is less mobile. There is certainly the argument that the options and movement in front of them are good enough to make even the most average midfield look elite. And these two are not average, but they will go above and beyond in their mission to assist the formidable Front Four.
Regulators in Spain have the power to regulate that service. In Dallas, their counter press will be one of their biggest allies. If they are positionally smart, structure will do a lot of work for them. Spain’s adjustment needs to be isolated as it is unlikely to unfold on its own.
Despite this, many will still consider France a shoo-in for Sunday’s final. In many cases momentum is with them. The fixture even falls on Bastille Day, a national holiday to celebrate.
But Spain is a unique proposition in its own right. Move into a state of flux and they have the potential to upset ‘France the favourites’.
The recent past tells us how often this has happened. Don’t be surprised to see history repeat itself on Tuesday.
Follow live coverage throughout France vs Spain Sky Sports’ Digital platform on Tuesdays from 6pm; Kick-off is at 8pm
