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Before Formula 1 reaches its summer break, two key races in Belgium and Hungary are set to decide which drivers and teams will go into August with the pace.
After exceeding all expectations in the first nine rounds, Kimi Antonelli will arrive at this weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix at the top of the standings with a 25-point lead over his Mercedes team-mate George Russell.
Somewhat strangely, Antonelli was perhaps at his most dominant over the rest of the field in terms of pure speed in the final three rounds, but a large portion of bad luck and a few errors saw his lead reduced to 41 points.
He barely overtook Russell during this period, but the Briton used his experience and tenacity to take a win in Austria and a wheel-guard failure for Antonelli after finishing second at Silverstone put the Italian out of contention for victory on points.
Although Antonelli’s pace was consistent, the 19-year-old made the odd mistake. He was lucky to get away with some overexciting driving at the start of the Austrian Grand Prix, when a poor start at Silverstone saw him overtake both Ferraris before the first corner.
There seems little doubt that Antonelli will continue to provide strong momentum, but the question is, with his rivals under increasing pressure, will he avoid problems that could allow them to further reduce their advantage.
After going three races without a win after a historic five-game winning streak, Antonelli could reclaim himself by returning to the top step in at least one of the two events before the break.
There is a sense of deja vu surrounding the Max Verstappen situation as we approach the final two races before the summer break.
This time last year there was much speculation over Verstappen’s future, before the Hungarian Grand Prix confirmed he would stay with the team for at least one more season.
Verstappen is signed up with Red Bull until the end of 2028 but has an exit clause in his contract which means he can leave the team at the end of the season if they are outside the top two at the start of the summer break, which confirmed his retirement from Silverstone.
During the previous double-header it became public knowledge that Verstappen’s representatives had met with McLaren to talk to the walking squad about whether there might be an opening for the Dutchman.
That story dominated the build-up to Silverstone, and the weekend couldn’t have gone much worse for Red Bull team principal Laurent Mackies, with Verstappen spending most of the time frustrated by a high-speed problem with his car before crashing in the closing stages of the race.
The crash was caused by the car’s rear wing not fully closing, and Verstappen was said to be “frustrated” by the “dangerous” conditions as he crashed due to a similar problem during qualifying in Austria a week earlier.
While it’s unclear how many options Verstappen has from Red Bull, there’s no doubt that Red Bull aren’t under too much pressure from their star driver.
So no more talk of the Ferrari contract renewal ‘curse’ hanging over Charles Leclerc for a British Grand Prix win.
Still, there was no disguising the fact that the going must have been rough for Leclerc as an extended contract with the Scuderia was announced in the lead-up to his home race in Monaco last month.
He crashed out of the race that weekend in the Principality, crashed again six days later in qualifying at Barcelona and, while he stuck his SF-26 on the front row for a fortnight to suggest the tide was turning in Austria, Spielberg’s race was so disastrous that he dropped to eight places.
But something seemed to click for Leclerc towards the business end of the Silverstone sprint weekend, allowing him to overtake the in-form Lewis Hamilton in another Ferrari around the track where the Briton often made the difference and, finally, with luck added to Antonelli’s last-death, 624-day personal victory.
Leclerc spoke after the race of being ‘feeling good’ with his car, though insisted the win was the first step towards delivering more consistent form. That’s where Hamilton has certainly had the upper hand in recent months, allowing the Briton to build up a 39-point advantage over the Mercedes drivers in their home position.
Leclerc will now head to Spa, the scene of his first career grand prix win in 2019, surely showing renewed confidence as Ferrari aim to see their surprisingly strong Silverstone form transfer to Belgium’s equally fast and flowing high-speed track. Should they do that, Mercedes could really have a genuine championship fight on their hands heading into the summer break.
After a disappointing start to the season, Aston Martin is hoping to finally turn a corner after bringing a major upgrade package to Hungary.
Team principal Adrian Newey confirmed ahead of the British Grand Prix that the package will result in significant weight reduction with some major changes to the AMR26’s aerodynamics.
It remains to be seen how much impact the changes will have, with the team’s main problems this season coming from their Honda engines.
While it is not yet confirmed when an engine update will arrive, the car’s redesign is likely to allow the power unit components to work more efficiently.
These upgrades are significant not only in the context of the team’s shockingly poor performances, but also in the future of Fernando Alonso.
The Spaniard turns 45 a few days after the race in Hungary, and his decision to continue for another year will surely be influenced by whether he sees positive results from the new part.
Falling into obscurity, Aston Martin will be back under the spotlight at the Hungaroring.
With Max Verstappen’s future – both in terms of staying in the sport or considering a switch – been a topic of discussion all season, it’s fair to say that the Dutchman’s situation is beyond speculation surrounding other movements on the grid outside of F1’s regular ‘silly season’.
However, whatever he decides will undoubtedly affect the rest of the grid, potentially freeing up a Red Bull seat and triggering a possible domino effect.
Alonso’s decision to retire, which could free up another seat at Aston Martin, will also be a key moment to indicate how much drama we can expect to see in the coming weeks.
So for those in line for one of the coveted seats, should they be available? If Verstappen were to leave Red Bull for McLaren or Mercedes, whichever driver he replaces at those teams would become an obvious option for a direct swap.
However, F1 is not always that simple, and there is no doubt that there are a few other drivers on the grid who feel they are just as deserving of the opportunity to drive for a top team.
Carlos Sainz continues to impress at Williams and may be losing patience after the team’s underwhelming start to 2026.
Another name floating around is Britain’s own Oliver Bearman, who is having a strong season for a Haas team that seems to be falling behind in the race for development.
The 21-year-old is contracted to Ferrari but with Hamilton and Leclerc in form, may decide his best route to move up the grid is to overtake the Italian team.
There is also speculation that Haas wants to replace Biermann’s teammate Esteban Ocon, who is having a difficult campaign. Former Red Bull driver Yuki Tsunoda is a leading candidate to return to the grid in that seat.
Formula 1’s summer run continues with the Belgian Grand Prix at legendary Spa-Francorchamps on July 17-19, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports now – no contract, cancel anytime