French far-right leader Marine Le Pen awaits court ruling

In the April-May election, the RN candidate, 30-year-old Jordan Bardella, will be Le Pen’s junior running mate. Polls currently indicate that he will be the favorite in the polls – but his youth and inexperience will become apparent once the campaign begins.

“The decision you have to make because of the presidential election has a confusing significance,” Le Pen’s lawyer, Rudolph Bosluth, said in a brief in February.

After deliberating for four months, the court will issue a ruling in March 2025 to confirm, overturn or compromise Le Pen’s verdict and sentence. 10 other RN officials – out of the 25 originally convicted – are also appealing.

In that first hearing, the RN leader was seen knowingly running a system in which RN staff in Paris presented themselves as EU parliamentary assistants in Brussels and Strasbourg in exchange for EU funding. The party at that time was short of funds.

If there are few – even in the RN – who expect Le Pen to be freed on appeal, everything will depend on the sentence he receives on Tuesday.

At the original trial, she was sentenced to two years in prison, to be served at home on an electronic tag. But the court ordered that he be disqualified from public office for five years. Crucially, this part of the sentence – unlike the prison term – is effective immediately and is not suspended pending appeal.

An outraged Le Pen called the verdict a “political decision” aimed at derailing her fourth and most promising bid for the presidency. Under pressure, courts set early appeal dates to allow time for a sentence change.

In the second trial, the same arguments were presented by both sides. Le Pen’s lawyers pleaded for acquittal. The advocate of the state asked for this period for one year, not for two, with an electronic account, but again the main part: disqualification for five years.

If the court follows the advocate of the state, Le Pen will be clearly out of the presidential race. In the event of a guilty plea, she will be equal in the race.

But it is the possibility of a middle judgment that has the French legal mind racing. For example, what if the court gave a two-year disqualification instead of a five-year one?

In theory, it would allow her to stand, as two years from the original ruling will expire on 31 March 2027 – two weeks before the first round of elections on 18 April.

But if the court rules that she wears an electronic tag for a year, that would make her candidacy impossible for Penn herself. “A candidate needs complete freedom of movement,” she said. “Can you imagine having to ask permission every time you go to a meeting or go shopping?”