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What history suggests is that a perfect group stage record rarely equals a World Cup win.
Taking out the group stages that did not consist of three fixtures for each and converting all results so that they follow the three points-per-win model, that leaves 17 World Cups to analyze.
Of those 17, only the aforementioned wins by Brazil and France are three examples of the nine group stage points needed to win the World Cup.
England’s victory over Panama would see them finish on seven points, the most World Cup wins based on group stage form.
Seven of the 17 winners scored seven points (including two-point conversions). This total includes wins by France and Germany in 2018 and 2014 respectively.
A six-point finish – which England cannot mathematically achieve, but Scotland can – produced four winners. Argentina’s victory four years ago saw them earn six points in a shock group stage loss to Saudi Arabia.
Defeat for England against Panama would see them finish on four points and, despite an incredibly unlikely scenario, likely to miss out on progression entirely. A team with four points in the group stage (after conversion) has never won the World Cup.
In 1982, hosts Spain pulled off the biggest shock of the World Cup by winning the competition. During the group stage, they drew all three of their matches. This is the only time a team has won the group stage with three points from three games (after conversion).
Group stage points received by World Cup winners since 1958 (with conversion to three points for all wins)
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9 points – 3 winners
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7 points – 7 winners
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6 points – 4 winners
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5 points – 2 winners
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4 points – 0 winners
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3 points – 1 winner
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