Why Makerfield elections in the UK need more than a parliamentary seat | Political Affairs

The small community of Makerfield in the north west of England has found itself in the eye of the storm British politics and Thursday’s special election that will not only produce a new candidate but also pave the way for a new minister.

The election was triggered last month when former MP Josh Simons stood down to allow Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to contest. If Burnham wins, he will challenge UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the ruling Labor party.

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Starmer is under increasing pressure to cancel last month’s snap election and the resignation of Secretary of State for Defense John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns this week over the UK’s defense budget.

Seeking to undermine Burham’s hopes for the Labor leadership, however, is far-right UK Reform candidate Robert Kenyon, whose campaign has been dogged by controversies over alleged sexism and misogyny on social media but remains far behind in the polls. Change came second in the last election in Makerfield, however, and looks set to spell trouble for Labour, which has been in power since it was founded in 1983.

Here’s a closer look at running, why it’s important and how its effects can extend beyond Makerfield.

Why is a repeat election happening at Makerfield?

Despite winning the 2024 general election, Labour’s popularity has soared in the past two years as support for the far-right, anti-immigration Reform UK has skyrocketed. In the council elections last month, Reform swept hundreds of council seats at Labor expense. In total, Labor lost around 1,500 council seats while Reform rose from 100 to around 1,450 seats.

On the right, Labor’s rhetoric on immigration has failed to curb support for Reform UK, which continues to appeal to former Conservative voters and working-class sectors of Labor culture – particularly in the north of England. On the left of the party, many voters who feel frustrated by Starmer’s actions on Israel and the cutbacks have moved to the Green Party.

Now, according to the Ipsos polling team, Starmer is not very popular Prime Minister since it began conducting voter surveys in the late 1970s.

As Labor’s internal strife deepens, Burnham has been seen as one of the party’s most popular members. Starmer’s alternatives. Recent polls suggest that Starmer will beat all the other contenders in the leadership race, with one notable exception: Burnham.

As Mayor of Manchester, Burnham is not an MP and currently cannot stand for the leadership of the Labor Party. Earlier this year, he was barred from standing for Parliament through a by-election in Gorton and Denton, a Labor seat lost to the Green Party.

As pressure on the Prime Minister mounts, however, Labour’s National Executive Committee has been reluctant to ban Burnham from standing again as an MP.

Announcing his resignation as MP for Makerfield after the council elections, Simons said Labor was heading into a divisive leadership race with “no hope, no power to change”. He described Makefield as “where Andy Burnham spent 25 years” and said the mayor was “coming home”.

“Labor has to change and the whole government has to change,” Simons added.

Who is standing and what campaign are they running?

Work: Andy Burnham

Burnham is currently the popular Mayor of Greater Manchester, having left Westminster after working in a number of agencies under Labor prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

ace major, Burnham he has built a reputation as one of Labour’s best-known politicians, benefiting from his distance from Westminster while saying it could learn from what he calls “Manchesterism” – a combination of business policies designed to attract investment while putting essential jobs into people’s hands.

Known by some supporters as the “King of the North”, Burnham gained national recognition for his opposition to the Conservative government during the COVID-19 pandemic and his long campaign to fight for justice for the victims of the Hillsborough tragedy.

His appeal to Labor workers in the north of England has led some members to see him as the strongest Labor leader to win back the so-called “Red Wall” – former industrial areas that have moved to Reform UK in the north of England.

Political commentator and journalist Aaron Bastani told Al Jazeera that Burnham’s record “makes a difference” and that he represents Labour’s best chance against Reform UK.

“Many Reform voters really like him.

But he added that, among other voters, he was still put off by his “association with Labor as the party of government”.

“Many Reform voters see Labor as the party that supported the Iraq war, and there is a lot of disillusionment with politics… The interesting thing is that Reform voters were criticizing Burnham, such as the reduction of oil payments in the winter and dissatisfaction with the government’s demands.”

Editing UK: Robert Kenyon

He hopes to damage Burnham’s chances with Reform’s Kenyon, who is affectionately referred to by some members of the UK press as a “plucky plumber” about his work. He represents a party whose rapid rise and anti-immigrant message has changed the political landscape in Britain.

The development of Reform UK was largely driven by Nigel Farage, the architect of Brexit, whose party has contributed to the collapse of the support of the old Conservative Party. Many big names from the Conservatives have left Reform in recent months. This has helped Reform attract both far-right voters and some former Labor supporters, especially on a platform that focuses on local grievances about immigration.

“For many voters, the number of vape shops and takeaways on the high street has been less of a reduction,” Bastani told Al Jazeera.

“It’s often one of the first things people talk about when they talk about immigration and neighborhood change. The concern isn’t really about vape shops — they’re seen as visible signs of economic decline, the loss of local communities and the perception that the environment is deteriorating.”

Bastani, however, described Kenyon as “apathetic”. His campaign was overshadowed by allegations of past social media activity.

The anti-terrorist group HOPE objected to articles written by Kenyon which included suggestions of a COVID-19 conspiracy, condoning sexist comments about television presenter Carol Vorderman and comments about female rugby players.

The group also highlighted comments on an online forum in which Kenyon described himself as a sexist and encouraged women to falsely report rape in order to get an abortion.

Take Britain Back: Rebecca Shepherd

Another is Restore Britain, a far-right breakaway party founded by former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe, who says that Reform UK has become more mainstream and that it is no longer difficult to fight undocumented immigration.

Lowe, a former member of Reform, was suspended by Reform UK in March 2025 after publicly criticizing party leader Nigel Farage and was later sacked following a series of workplace abuse allegations and complaints from female colleagues, which he denies.

Since launching the new party less than four months ago, Restore Britain is said to have attracted more than 96,000 members and 13 councillors, many of whom were former Reformers. If a large part of the electorate leaves Reform UK, it will be over dent Reform part of the vote enough just to benefit the Work.

Conservative: Michael Winstanley

Winstanley is a former mayor of Wigan, representing the former ruling Conservative Party. He was elected councilor for the Orrell ward in 2000, and served for 16 years.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called Winstanley “the best candidate in the area who has lived, worked and represented the people of this area for many years”.

Observers are not expecting any showing of Conservative voters in this election, however. At the May by-election in Wigan, Labor won 42 seats, Reform 25, and the Conservatives got none. And, at the last election in Makerfield, the Tories came third – behind Labor and Reform – with more than 10 per cent of the vote.

What do the polls say about the candidates?

Polling shows the race is a two-horse race between Labor and Reform UK. A major campaign poll, conducted by Opinium for Forward Democracy, shows Burnham has a narrow lead.

Based on a cross-sectional survey of 543 local residents, Burnham leads Kenyon by five percentage points in likely voters. Among those who registered at least seven-in-ten eligible to vote, Burnham is at 46 percent compared to Kenyon’s 41 percent.

However, Kenyon’s share could be eroded by the 7 percent that Shepherd is expected to win in the first round of the British parliament. The Conservatives are polling just 2 percent.

In addition, with Labor leading the general election campaign, long-term trends in the region could favor Reform UK. When pollsters were asked how they would vote in the next election, Reform UK led by 42 per cent compared to Labour’s 34 per cent, meaning that Burnham’s proposal could be helping Labor improve its national profile.

In May, Labor lost all eight council seats in Makerfield to Reform.

Tom de Grunwald, founder of Forward Democracy and StopReformUK.Vote, said voting wisely could be decisive. “If you live in Makerfield and you usually vote Green, Liberal Democrat, or whoever, and you don’t want Reform UK to win this seat, the maths is clear: Andy Burnham is the only one who can stop them,” he said.

However, Bastani said he doubted that many British Reformers would eventually return to Reform UK. “Many of those voters now see Farage as part of the establishment,” he said, adding that Restore Britain could exceed expectations on polling day – which would split the right-wing vote and benefit Burnham. While he expects Burnham to win, Bastani said the result should not overshadow Reform’s rise.

“I would be surprised if Burnham didn’t win. But if Reform had wanted a more powerful candidate, this would have looked very different. If Farage somehow managed to win such a seat against someone with Burnham’s record, it would be one of the most important political events of his career.”