Fantasy Flower Gold: Players from Albies to Murakami can’t be trusted

April numbers have a way of playing tricks on our eyes.

Seasonal sample sizes tend to be small, which creates an air of artificiality and panic Fantasy Manager More apt to be fooled by a decent – or bloody – surface statistic that clouds our perception of a player’s worth. This is the time of year where we still have fantasy managers focusing the most attention on their rosters, but trades bring the most nervousness to the table. Who wants to start their season 1-4, or worse, 0-5, anyway?

Yes, there’s fool’s gold in the fantasy baseball player pool right now, players who may look like real contributors, but in reality their hot starts have been fueled by fortunate circumstances — a soft schedule, some lucky bounces, maybe a short-term opportunity. Weeding out these statistical cheats now, before the seasonal numbers smooth out over the summer months, could prove advantageous in fantasy leagues.

In past seasons, high opening month stats artificially inflated players’ perceived value, e.g George Mateo (2023), Alec Bohm (2024) and Cedric Mullins (2025). Cashing in any three on the trade market at this point in the season would be a big win for fantasy managers, considering Mateo scored fewer fantasy points the rest of 2023 than he did in his opening months, Bohm failed to get an OPS within 200 points of his 1.036 April mark and batted in 2024. .198/.263/.355 after his .278/.412/.515 April last season.

The following six players look like this year’s fool’s gold:

He’s off to one of the best starts of his 10-year career, with his 83 Fantasy points his most through the Braves’ first 29 games in any season since 2019, as well as the fourth-most by any second baseman this year. Unfortunately, those results come despite poor contact-quality metrics, as Albies’ barrel rate is in the 14th percentile and hard-hit rate in the 12th percentile. Additionally, his .370 wOBA is 72 points higher than expected, the largest difference among batting title-eligibles. Albies’ Braves also faced one of the most favorable opening month hitting schedules.

Albies got off to a similarly seemingly torrid start in 2024 only to cool sharply in May, en route to averaging 2.38 fantasy points per game, his third-worst of the previous nine years. Injuries have played a role in the statistical decline, but they’re also hard to excuse, as he’s missed 208 days over the past four seasons alone due to various ailments, many involving his hand or wrist.

Middle infielder I would rather: Corey Seager.

After his opening-week, three-hit shutout Chicago White SoxWith his only shutout in the majors so far in 2026 and his second straight scoreless outing to start the year, many pundits had Alcantara declared the front-runner for National League Cy Young honors. After four weeks, the right-hander’s stats — he’s 26th in fantasy points among starting pitchers — would put him in that conversation, but anyone who watched him probably thought something was wrong.

Alcantara’s strikeout rate in four starts is 13.6%, and he’s falling into a bit of a matchup pattern, with the first two outs coming against his two easiest all year and two of his worst he’s faced (@DET, MIL). He hasn’t provided evidence that his skill set matches his 2022 Cy Young season, and last year’s early-season nightmare reminded us of what can happen when his command isn’t at its best. Alcantara’s trade value will come down entirely to your league’s perception of his value, but if we take a straight-up trade approach to this, then…

Starting pitchers I would rather: Carlos Rodon, Chase Burns.

His surface stats look absolutely fine, with his ERA of 2.79, his six saves tied for sixth in the majors, and his 34.9% strikeout rate looking close to his best numbers since his 2022-23 peak. Helsley’s 50 fantasy points also rank among the top 35 relief pitchers, and his job security in Baltimore appears to be good.

A quick look under the hood, however, reveals two troubling numbers: his 16.3% walk rate, which would be a career worst (for a pitcher who never excelled in the division), and his 57.1% hard-hit rate, which is fourth-highest among pitchers who have worked at least 9⅔ innings. Considering Helsley’s average fastball velocity this year is still a tick below where it was during the 2022-23 run, and his slider’s whiff rate doesn’t quite match that season, either, there are efficiency concerns. That’s not to say Helsley’s closer role will be at risk imminently, but if he hits a rough patch, the team could have a capable fill-in. Andrew Kittredge, Anthony Nunez And maybe even Rico Garcia.

Relief pitcher I would rather: Devin Williams

A less prominent name in ESPN standard leagues (only 40.4% rostered), though with streaming value due to the hitting-friendly limitations of Coors Field, Moniak is a trade candidate if the return is someone you can lock into your lineup on a regular basis. The late-blooming 2016 No. 1 overall pick is off to a torrid start, but also from afar Wide difference between his actual and expected wOBA — 125 points!!! He’s been tearing it up at home (.370/.388/.848, 6 HR) but has been mediocre on the road (.242/.306/.455), and between that and his career woes against lefties (.182/.222/.267), he’s a hitter that needs a lot of match-ups.

Between his lack of Rockies lineup talent, his own middle-of-the-road defense and his inefficiency against lefties, Moniak doesn’t have the “volume” angle that other hitters do, meaning he’s more of a core field game than anything else.

I’d rather be an outfielder: Lawrence Butler.

His historic start — his 12 home runs through the first 29 games of his career are tied for the third-most in history — certainly widened his fantasy profile, with his roster rate in ESPN leagues up 52% ​​from Opening Day. Beneath that, however, questions persisted that left him only borderline draft-eligible in standard leagues. Those 12 homers represent all of Murakami’s extra-base hits, he has the fifth-highest home run/fly ball rate in the majors (20.0%) and the third-worst whiff rate in swings (41.2%).

No player in the pitch-tracking era has had an OPS over .900, as Murakami currently does, in a season in which he qualified for the batting title but swung on more than 40% of his swings. However, the No. 1 name on that historic home-run list brings us a scary point of comparison: Aristades Aquino, another free-swinging, big-power type whose immediate future didn’t go particularly well beyond that.

Corner infielder I would rather: Christian Walker.

He’s off to a solid start with a 3.77 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in his first five starts and quality starts in two of his last three starts, but something about Woodruff’s 2026 is lacking. Most notably, since recovering from October 2023 shoulder surgery, the right-handed batsman has returned to his pace. He averaged just 92.8 mph in 17 starts between this and last season — never over 94 mph in a single inning — compared to 96.0 in his career so far. Not only was it not the strikeout pitch it once was, it contributed to a 20.0% K rate that would be his worst since his 2017 campaign.

The Brewers have also been cautious with Woodruff since his return, giving him only one start on four days of rest, while he made eight such starts in 2022 alone. Between those volume limitations and his former lack of top-shelf stuff, he’s a pitcher to trade.

The starting pitcher I would rather be: Yuri Perez.