The rise of solar and the rise of hydro will push more coal off the US grid

Last year, the first few months of data from the US grid suggested that fears of data-driven growth were coming true. Demand rose about 3 percent, to cause an increase in coaldisrupting what has been going on for a long time. But over the course of the year, everything is happening too late.

A year later, all of this seems to be a thing of the past, as the US is back to normal: slower growth, with renewables pushing coal out of the grid. The irony is that hydroelectric power generation has increased without increasing power, perhaps due to the warmer climate in the western US causing the snow to melt faster. This may have an effect later in the year.

Push the oil out

Total demand in the US grew by only 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year. In most cases, the change in demand for this part of the year is driven by the demand for warmer weather. But the United States had an unusual mix of weather to begin 2026, with the western half baking in unseasonably warm weather, while the eastern half was freezing cold. So we will probably need data from many years before we read too much into the small increase in demand that we have seen so far.

As has been the case for some time now, the biggest trend in the US grid has been the growth of solar. Compared to the same quarter a year earlier, the sun rose by 24 percent. On its own, that was enough to offset 80 percent of the demand rise. Overall, the output of the main renewable energy sources (wind, solar, and hydro) grew by 11 percent compared to the same period last year, or about 1.8 times the required amount.

Wind and hydro are up, coal is down compared to this time a year ago.

Credit: John Timmer

As renewable growth outstripped demand, there was nowhere for oil to go but down. Overall, they saw a decline of about 3 percent year-on-year, with almost no change in growth (if not a sign) in demand growth. But natural gas consumption grew slightly in the first quarter, which means coal took a bigger hit, and its use fell 10 percent. This may change as tensions in the Persian Gulf keep global gas prices higher, but it was not a major factor in this data.