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Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan is trying to keep the lines of communication open between the United States and Iran, amid growing tensions on both sides, and growing indications from Washington that it is planning to resume the offensive that has been suspended since the April 8 ceasefire in the US-Israeli war in Iran.
Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived in Tehran on Saturday to meet with President Masoud Pezeshkian, Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni and the Speaker of Parliament. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf which Islamabad rushed to avoid negotiations to end the war from falling at all. Ghalibaf also became the main Iranian leader in peace talks with the US to end the war, which began on February 28.
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However, on Sunday, as Naqvi continued to hold talks with Iranian officials, US President Donald Trump issued a warning Social Truth: “For Iran, the Clock is ticking, and they better move, FAST, or there will be nothing left. TIME IS OF THE ESSENTIAL!”
Over the weekend, Trump also met with his senior national security team, including the Vice President JD VanceSecretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and special envoy Steve Witkoff.
The changes in Tehran, however, are very different from those in Washington.
At his weekly press conference on Monday, the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Esmaeil Baghaei, said that although Trump publicly announced that Iran’s response was “totally unacceptable” last week, Washington sent “reviewed facts and opinions” through Pakistani mediators.
Iran also reviewed and responded through the same process. “The process continues in Pakistan,” Baghaei said. Later, the Iranian news agency Tasnim said that Iran’s submission to Pakistan – to be sent to the US – included 14 points.
However, the conflict continues. Over the weekend, drones struck a power generator outside the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia separately said it had captured three drones that had been launched from an Iraqi plane.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan On Monday he condemned the attack on Barakah as a “serious violation of international law” and urged all parties to exercise “extreme restraint”.
These developments show how far diplomacy has progressed since to stop the fire it started working 40 days ago.
Both sides have exchanged ideas, rejected each other’s demands, and changed the language of military escalation, and fighting is now possible, according to experts.
The abundance of hope
Following the end of April 8 and the fall of he speaks in Islamabad on April 11-12, Washington and Tehran continued to share ideas through Pakistani mediators.
On April 28, Iran issued a 14-points of conflict calling for an end to hostilities within 30 days, the withdrawal of the US from areas near its borders, the removal of the US military fence, the release of frozen goods, withdrawal of the war, and a new route to the Strait of Hormuz. The nuclear issue was never mentioned in detail.
Washington responded in early May with his own system. His central demands included a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment, the relocation of Iran’s richest uranium stockpile, estimated to be around 400kg (882 pounds) enriched to 60 percent, and the dismantling of nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow.
Confirming that he received the US request at the time, Baghaei emphasized that Iran’s policy focused on resolving the conflict.
He said: “The plans we have described are about ending the war.
Tehran took 10 days to respond. Iran’s written response offered to ship enriched uranium to a third country and suspend nuclear talks until the end of the current period. But Trump dismissed it as “absolutely unacceptable”.
Baghaei repeated Tehran’s actions on Monday.
“This is not a topic that we discuss or ignore. Iran’s right to enrichment is recognized under the The cost of NPT“he said, referring to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Israel, which initiated the war along with the US, has not signed.
Iran also placed five conditions on any new talks: an end to hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon; reduce penalties; the release of frozen products; military pay; and recognizing Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Javad Heiran-Nia, an international relations researcher in Tehran, told Al Jazeera that the debate over the succession was one of necessity and not of wisdom.
Iran wanted the Hormuz issue resolved first to prevent Washington from using the naval blockade as leverage in future nuclear talks, he said.
“The US wants nuclear negotiations from the beginning so that they can maintain maritime security during the negotiations and keep it as a useful card,” he said.
“It has a big structural difference: Iran wants long-term insurance following the withdrawal of the US from the JCPOA in 2018, while Washington wants to use military power and sanctions to gain more opportunities,” the expert added, referring to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 nuclear agreement that international powers signed with Iran, before going to Iran.
Ilhan Niaz, a professor of history at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad, said both sides have reasons to be conservative.
“Iran is now stronger because of the war than it could have been expected to continue with previous (US) policies,” he told Al Jazeera. “Iran will continue to have ideas that are in line with reality, and the US will continue to have ideas that are consistent with maintaining its prestige.”
Pakistan’s position is in crisis
Naqvi was the third Pakistani general to visit Tehran in recent weeks, following the army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir at the end of April the trip is first visit together and Munir and Naqvi.
Heiran-Nia warned that Pakistan is approaching a difficult limits.
“Pakistan is on the verge of transitioning from being an important road to a road where both sides are not standing,” he told Al Jazeera. “As soon as Iran and the US use other methods like Oman or Qatar, or say that Pakistan cannot impose pressure on all sides, Islamabad’s role will be less.”
Mehran Kamrava, a professor of international relations at Georgetown University in Qatar, however, rejected the assessment.
“The end of the ceasefire does not mean that Pakistan will be ignored by all sides,” he told Al Jazeera. “Pakistan is very important politically as a source of communication and communication.”
The differences between Washington and Tehran were wide and hatred deep, he said, but this did not diminish Islamabad’s position. “It remains an important strategy regardless of the situation of the military,” said the Doha expert.
Baghaei also confirmed on Monday that talks with Oman are continuing, including expert talks in Muscat focused on ensuring safe passage through Hormuz.
Niaz said Pakistan still got something to look at.
“Pakistani diplomats have led to his death and the opening of the embassy,” he said.
Military portrait
A US military analysis published by The New York Times said Iran had regained access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, where its stockpile was about 70 percent before the war.
Meanwhile, CNN reported that the US Pentagon prepared a list that includes Iran’s capabilities and weapons.
Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, a spokesman for Iran’s military, warned on May 17 that any repetition of US military operations to “pay for America’s humiliation” would lead to “a heavy and heavy blow”.
Heiran-Nia said the current crisis is more dangerous than it has been in the past. A direct naval conflict, he warned, could trigger a rapid escalation “in the next 48 to 72 hours”. The drone attack over the weekend, he said, shows how much Tehran is willing to escalate.
“It shows how red lines can be crossed in a new war,” he said.
Kamrava said the risk of accidental ascent is as real as it is intentional.
“There is a lot of weapons in the area and a lot of mistrust between all the groups,” he told Al Jazeera.
He warned not to see the problem as a conflict between the US and Iran. “There are several flashpoints that could explode at any moment,” he warned.
After Beijing
Trump traveled to Beijing last week after weeks of sending messages from his administration that Washington expects Chinese President Xi Jinping to do so. pressure on Tehran by opening the Strait of Hormuz.
But their conversation he failed to provide guidance in Iran. Both parties agreed that the process should be open to trade and commerce. But China blamed the US for the war.
China also told domestic companies last week to ignore US sanctions targeting refiners buying Iranian products.
At the BRICS economic cooperation meeting in New Delhi on May 15, Iran’s foreign minister. Abbas Araghchi he acknowledged that he had received messages from Washington about new talks, but said “disbelief” remained. The nuclear issue, he added, will be “put on hold” until further notice, a move that Washington rejects.
At a press conference on Monday, Baghaei said “America is the most reliable in the world” and urged regional countries, including the UAE, to learn from it in recent months.
Niaz said the conflict was similar to another conflict that took years to resolve.
“The situation is similar to the US war in Vietnam after the Tet Offensive which undermined Washington’s claim that the conflict was winning.” That disappointment proved that the US could not win and began the process of reforming the US policy.
Niaz described the future as “a long period followed by a breakdown of the ceasefire”.
