Trump’s Federal Gas Tax Holiday Won’t Lower Prices

Like gas prices be stubborn across the country, President Donald Trump pondered this week about suspending the tax on gasoline that US consumers pay. The idea is also gaining momentum in Congress, where both Democratic and Republican lawmakers are pushing for a gas tax holiday.

But experts tell WIRED that it’s unlikely any refund — even temporary — of the fee will save consumers as summer approaches.

“It’s unlikely that oil, gasoline, diesel prices will return to where they were in February anytime in the next few months,” says Clark Williams-Derry, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

The Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, is also a hub for oil and gas production and production. it was closed properly since the beginning of March, when the US and Israel went to war with Iran.

The average price of gasoline nationwide was $4.53 a gallon as of Thursday, up from $4.12 a month ago, and $3.18 a year ago. according to the AAA. That includes the federal gas tax, which is more than 18 cents per gallon. Trump can’t stop the gas tax on his own—it would take something from Congress. (The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.) The tax, enacted in 1932, has not been suspended. But politicians from both parties have proposed several bills this year that would temporarily raise the federal tax rate.

Even if the tax is suspended this summer, drivers won’t see much in the way of savings. Prices at the pump are determined by a number of different factors, from refining to the cost of operating a gas station. The price of oil has changed dramatically, with Brent crude – the main indicator – rising to $ 144 per barrel on the night of April 7, when Trump and the Iranian government terminated the two-week deal. At the moment it is about $ 105 a barrel, it is still much higher than approximately $69 in 2025.

And inflation driven by high oil prices and shortages of products that depend on oil as an essential commodity, such as Fertilizeraround the world is also making life more expensive for Americans. In April, the consumer price index – which is used to measure inflation – was and 3.8 percent year after year. With the cost of everything from food and rent to flights rising, saving 18 cents doesn’t add up over time.

“If you remove the gas tax, it’s not going to have a big impact (on consumers),” says Tyson Slocum, director of the energy program at the think tank Public Citizen. “But what would be surprising is the loss of federal funding.”

Federal gas taxes pay for the Highway Trust Fund, which was created to help highway maintenance and mass transit services. That bag was already facing each other a major failure news before proposals to raise the federal gas tax. Williams-Derry points out that many roads in the US are “really falling apart.” About 40% of the country’s highways need to be repaired, 2025 study. found. The already low tax rate is the cause of the damage problem, he says.

Cutting costs, even temporarily, would only exacerbate the problem. There is also the possibility that the temporary break will be extended indefinitely due to the political risks of reimbursing, especially as the midterms approach.

“Losing the money that the government has available to make sure our transportation system stays affordable, it’s not good for consumers,” Slocum said.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut the world’s oil supply suddenly from the market in what is widely acknowledged as one of the worst energy crises in history. Even if the Strait of Hormuz opens as soon as tomorrow, the new output could take some time to reach consumers – perhaps a month or more as tankers go to customers and production facilities begin to return.

Williams-Derry said: “A tanker goes as fast as a bicycle. “It’s a very important journey.”