Premier League predictions and best bets: Liverpool set for dirty dozen league defeat at Aston Villa | football news

Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight ahead of another exciting weekend of Premier League action.

Aston Villa v Liverpool, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Liverpool’s away games under Arne Slott are creating a very clear pattern and the market is yet to align with it.

For a side blessed with so much attacking quality, Liverpool are turning out to be remarkably conservative starters on the road. They have scored just four first-half goals in their last 18 away matches in all competitions, meaning Liverpool have scored under 0.5 first-half goals in 13 games – a massive 72 per cent strike-rate.

Slott has prioritized chaotic control away from Anfield, slowing down games early, limiting transitions and keeping Liverpool compact rather than letting them go away from the first whistle as we’ve often seen under Jurgen Klopp.

Villa Park under the lights is one of the toughest starts in the league for any visiting team and Unai Emery’s side are usually well drilled in the opening stages, especially against elite opposition where they are happy to be compact and frustrated.

A further KG to this has all been built on a first 45 minutes where Liverpool patiently probed rather than overwhelmed, so a 0.5 first half goal angle for Liverpool at 11/10 with Sky Bet is a great starting point.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

FA Cup Final: Manchester City v Chelsea, Saturday 3pm

Goals Against Match at Wembley is a sustainable long-term betting strategy. It may be the mecca of English football – every footballer’s dream to play there – but I’m sure the place slows down the pace of a game. Across the last 54 domestic and European matches played at Wembley, the average goals per game is 1.93 and 92 per cent of those games have landed supporters under 3.5 goals, a 1/2 shot with Sky Bet.

The way to take this bet to a backable level is to add Mark Guihy to foul at least once into the mix using the BuildABet function with Evens at Sky Bet. This Guihi bet is a developing trend, his number of fouls has continued to rise since signing for Man City as he has been fouled 11 times in his last six starts.

Score Prediction: 2-0

Manchester United v Nottingham Forest, Sunday 12.30pm, Live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6!

So is Michael Carrick permanently at Manchester United?

For a club desperately seeking stability, handing over the keys to a former player with strong emotional ties to Old Trafford seems like a move driven by nostalgia for cold analysis.

When you dig into the numbers behind Carrick’s interim spell, there are enough warning signs to make any punter think twice before buying into the hype.

The result? excellent Process? Much less believable.

Carrick has won 10 of his 15 Premier League games in charge this season, collecting 33 points from a possible 45. Only Manchester City have taken more points in that period and no team has won more matches.

These numbers scream progress. But dig deeper and it becomes harder to argue that Manchester United are building anything sustainable.

The most expressive metric is expected goal dominance—the difference between producing xG and accepting xG. Under Carrick, United are operating at just +0.1 xG per 90 minutes. It is virtually identical to Reuben Amorim’s reign before him, with little fundamentally changed in terms of overall performance levels.

Across the last eight Premier League matches, only already-relegated Wolves and Burnley own a worse XG dominance statistic than Manchester United at -0.3 per 90. This is a huge red flag for a team that is supposed to be headed in the right direction. I’m happy to take a double chance of Forest avoiding defeat at 5/4 with Sky Bet.

Score Prediction: 1-2

Brentford v Crystal Palace, Sunday 3pm, Live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6!

There aren’t many players in the Premier League that carry the threat that Ismail Sarr poses at the moment.

The Crystal Palace forward looks absolutely electric in transition and Brentford’s attacking style should play directly into his hands here.

Sarr has scored 20 goals in all competitions this season and his away numbers are particularly eye-catching. Sara has scored nine goals in his last nine starts on the road, registering 17 shots on target in those matches.

At 11/4 with Sky Bet to score, the numbers appeal a lot considering his recent form.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | Jones knows best bet: Ismaila Sar to score (11/4 with Sky Bet)

Everton v Sunderland, Sunday 3pm, Live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6!

There is ample evidence to suggest the draw is again being undervalued with Sky Bet here at 13/5.

Neither side hits convincing winning form and that usually creates value in a market that is reluctant to get behind many punters. Everton are without a win in their last five Premier League games – their longest winless run of the season – while Sunderland have failed to win a single one of their last four, drawing their last two.

The draw itself continues to be one of the most underrated betting angles in the Premier League Across the last 70 top-flight matches, the stalemate has clicked a healthy 33 per cent strike-rate, yet prices often drift outside the value zone as bettors naturally gravitate towards picking winners.

A low margin affair looks on the cards.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES Knows’ Best BET: Back The Draw (13/5 with Sky Bet)

Leeds v Brighton, Sunday 3pm, Live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6!

James Justin’s new role at left wing-back presents one of the more interesting player prop angles in the Premier League at the moment.

The market still seems to value him as a conventional defender, when in reality, his positioning and shot volume is much closer to that of an attacking wing-back who is encouraged to drive inside and pull the trigger if possible.

Across his last five starts in that role, he’s averaging 2.44 shots per game – a huge number for a player still viewed largely through a defensive lens by bookmakers. At 9/4 with Sky Bet for two or more shots, the numbers suggest we’re still ahead of the market consensus on his role.

Score Prediction: 1-2 | Jones knows best bet: James Justin two or more shots (9/4 with Sky Bet)

Wolves v Fulham, Sunday 3pm, Live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6!

It feels like one of those classic end-of-season fixtures where motivation and mentality are as important as form figures.

On paper, Fulham should probably be shorter than 17/20 with Sky Bet against a Wolves side stumbling towards the finish line after a miserable campaign. But at this stage of the season it has become a dangerous game for Marco Silva’s side away from home.

Fulham’s April and May record under Silva raises some serious concerns. They lost 13 of their last 22 Premier League matches played in those months, developing a frustrating habit of fading badly as the campaign drew to a close.

There is more than a hint of “at the beach” syndrome about them.

And there are still reasons to think Wolves can summon a final response at Molineux.

Home advantage remains significant for them and it shows a gritty, emotional type of competition where three points can be earned against opponents who may already have one eye on the summer break.

At 14/5 with Sky Bet, Wolves look overpriced

Score Prediction: 1-0

Newcastle v West Ham, Sunday 5.30pm, Live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6!

The final weeks of a campaign are one of my favorite times to look at second half goals, especially since the break tends to favor more goals than before. You can even score more goals in the second half than the first with Sky Bet.

It’s one of those angles that doesn’t always look sexy on paper but the psychology of football at this stage of the season creates the perfect storm for late chaos where tactical discipline disappears as games stretch.

This motivational imbalance tends to get stronger as the matches wear on. The team needing points continues to push while others mentally check out once the intensity rises. That’s the card here.

West Ham are also a second-half team, scoring 13 goals in their last 14 games after the break. In eight of these matches, more goals were scored in the second half than in the first. A late salvo to put pressure on Spurs is the way to play it.

Score Prediction: 1-2

Arsenal v Burnley, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Arsenal are now within touching distance. Mikel Arteta knows the equation of the side. Crystal Palace could have one eye firmly fixed on their cup final defeat of already relegated Burnley at the Emirates ahead of a final day visit. It opened beautifully.

This Burnley clash looks as close to a mismatch as any in the Premier League. The Clarets have won just one of their last 27 league games. The market has Burnley at 18/1 – a price that would eliminate the biggest shock result based on pre-match odds in Premier League history.

I expect Arsenal to start aggressively, pin Burnley down early and overwhelm them with territory and pressure.

Everything points to a routine home win and potentially a very one-sided evening.

Score Prediction: 4-0

Jones knows the best bet…

1pt treble on: Ismalia Sarr to score, James Justin +2 shots and Everton v Sunderland to draw (45/1 with Sky Bet)