As the possibility of a ‘Super El Niño’ grows, record global temperatures as much as possible

While El Niño is forming in the Pacific Ocean, forecasters are looking for one area in particular, called Niño 3.4, which dominates the three-month average sea surface temperature compared to the long-term average.

A strong or ‘Super El Niño’ is when it exceeds 1.5C.

Forecasts from the European Central Meteorological Center (EC), NOAA and BoM are very similar in their results.

In the EC’s latest forecast, more than half of their forecast models suggest temperatures above 2.5C in autumn.

Anything above 2.5C would be a “historically strong event,” Johnson said.

BoM forecasts are also confidently showing the possibility of a very strong El Niño later this year.

Some forecasts suggest temperatures could exceed 3C, which would be higher than the 2.7C high recorded in 1877.

It should be noted that this was a very different era with limited observations, so there is considerable uncertainty in the reported temperatures.

That El Niño lasted for 18 months and caused a catastrophic global weather event, causing severe drought and widespread famine across Asia, Brazil and Africa, killing millions, and causing severe flooding in other regions such as Peru.

The last ‘extremely strong’ El Niño occurred in 2015-2016 when the average three-month (November, December, January) Niño3.4 temperature reached 2.4C.