Can South Africa’s Ramaphosa be accused of “cash-in-sofa”? | | Narrator

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has refused to resign over the “sofa money issue” that continues to plague his leadership.

Ramaphosa, who addressed the nation on Monday to announce his intention to remain in office, is expected to face a multi-party opposition committee, which will investigate allegations that he hid in 2020 his private farm and stole more than $500,000, concealing what happened from the police and tax authorities.

The committee’s findings may reflect its criticism; however, the parliament has not given a time frame for the investigation to begin.

Analysts say the scandal, dubbed “Farmgate”, has been a major blow to the president who took office in 2018 with an anti-corruption campaign, after the much-criticized administration of Jacob Zuma. Now, eight years later, the case of money found in a sofa at his farm may be what brought Ramaphosa down.

Can the South African president survive? This is what we know.

What is a scandal?

In February 2020, burglars allegedly broke into Ramaphosa’s luxury farm, Phala Phala, in Limpopo province, South Africa, and stole $580,000. The money is said to have been hidden inside furniture at the farm – hence the name “Farmgate”.

Ramaphosa has been accused of covering up the theft and keeping efforts to find the thieves secret to avoid an investigation into where the money came from – and why it was hidden in the sofa.

Stories of corruption came to light when the former head of South Africa’s national security agency joined the police in 2022 and accused the president of the stolen money.

Later that year, an independent parliamentary committee found Ramaphosa “probable” of serious breaches and inefficiency. In particular, the panel found that he failed to properly report the theft to the police in accordance with anti-corruption laws and “acted contrary to his office”.

At the time, the African National Congress (ANC) had a majority in the parliament – with 230 seats out of 400. It was therefore able to reject the report and refused to open any impeachment proceedings.

But the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) contested this at the Constitutional Court in Cape Town, which last week overturned the government’s objection to the 2022 parliamentary report and sent it to a multi-party removal committee for a full investigation.

What did Ramaphosa say?

Mr Ramaphosa has always denied allegations of corruption and says the stolen money came from the sale of buffalo.

Since the decision of the Constitutional Court last week, Ramaphosa has been facing calls for his resignation, especially from opposition leaders. In a televised address on Monday, the president refused to step down.

“Even though in some areas people have been asking me to resign, nothing has been decided by the Constitutional Court for me to resign,” he said.

“Since I was charged in June 2022, I have maintained that I have not stolen public funds, committed any crime, or violated my oath of office,” Ramaphosa said in a statement, adding that he would cooperate with all investigations.

The President also rejected the 2022 report from an independent group, saying: “The complaints against me are based on false news.

If the committee finds enough evidence against him, it can order him to be impeached.

It is unclear how long this will last, however. Mr Ramaphosa has promised to review the contents of the report, which could delay the investigation by the opposition committee.

What is the process of impeachment?

If the president is found to have broken the law or the law, or is unable to perform his duties, the South African parliament has the power to remove him from office.

Through the congressional investigation that has been launched into the Farmgate scandal, which could lead to impeachment votes, any congressman can pass a resolution seeking to remove the president. The Speaker of Parliament will then send the decision to an independent panel of legal experts to determine whether there is sufficient evidence to proceed.

If the panel decides there is a case against the president, lawmakers must vote on whether to begin impeachment. After this, a specially constituted prosecution committee was set up to investigate the cases in detail. This is separate from the investigation that has started now and could take several months.

Once the committee approves the president’s impeachment, the parliament has the final vote to impeach the president. Under Article 89 of the constitution, a two-thirds majority is required – meaning at least 267 votes are needed for impeachment in the 400-seat Parliament.

Are there other ways to remove Ramaphosa?

Yes, the president of South Africa can be removed from office through a vote of no confidence in the parliament.

Any member of the assembly can say that there is no more confidence, and it only needs to be more than 50 percent.

Ramaphosa may need help from his allies to survive a no-confidence vote, however. This has already been reported by at least two opposition parties in parliament.

Another option would be if his own party, the ANC, turns on him, as they did with the last president, Zuma, who came under years of corruption charges and was eventually forced to resign in 2018.

How strong is Ramaphosa’s position?

Ramaphosa is not only the president of South Africa, but also the leader of his most popular party, the ANC. Nelson Mandela was the first black president of the ANC after apartheid ended in 1994.

In 2024, the ANC lost its majority in parliament for the first time in more than three decades. Today, the ANC has 159 of the 400 seats in the national assembly, or about 40 percent of the seats – and Ramaphosa governs in a coalition with the Democratic Alliance, which has 87 seats, along with other smaller parties.

But Chris Ogunmodede, an independent expert on African politics, security, and international affairs, based in Lagos, Nigeria, said Ramaphosa could survive any attempt, “because of the math”.

“His numbers in parliament confirm that the impeachment is not happening,” Ogunmodede told Al Jazeera.

“It has not been easy, but there is a government that seems to be working and showing signs of recovery,” added Ogunmodede. “There is a lot of uncertainty on the part of some coalition parties who are showing that they would prefer to be on the side of caution and go with the devil they know, and protect the government by keeping Ramaphosa.”

Even so, the issue of money in the sofa has been damaging, he said.

And, under Ramaphosa, the ANC’s popularity has continued to decline. The party’s vote dropped from 57.5 percent in the 2019 election to 40.2 percent in the 2024 election, marking its worst performance since the end of apartheid.

South Africa’s economy has shown some signs of improvement, however, giving the Ramaphosa government “something to show for the time it has been in power”, Ogunmodede said.

However, the South African government is still facing long-term concerns about the economy, the country’s institutions, corruption, crime, etc., the expert added.

On the side of opposition to the leadership, Ogunmodede said the high court’s ruling on the sofa money issue “has reawakened many of the concerns that South Africans have had about the president and his party, as well as political institutions across the country”.